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#NvidiaHitsRecordHigh $NVDA
GM ☕ Instead of repeating the same bullish take, let me do something different: what actually changed on the NVDA chart in one day, and what I do about it.
Yesterday vs today on the 4H
Yesterday price was pressing right under 240.8 with RSI around 75, stretched and overheated. Today:
Price pushed through, wicked up to about 243, got rejected, and is back around 239.9
RSI cooled from about 75 to about 68.5, which is exactly the kind of reset I wanted to see
All three moving averages are still stacked and rising: 237.6, 235.1 and 232.5
MACD is still positive, but the histogram is shrinking, so momentum is slowing, not reversing
The purple support way down at 227.4 hasn't been touched since late September
My read: the trend didn't break, it took a breath. A small pullback after a fresh high is the healthiest thing that can happen in an uptrend. The 243 wick tells me sellers showed up at that level, so that's the number the stock now has to clear.
Why price targets of 260 don't change my entry
Analysts raising targets tells me the story is intact, but targets don't tell me where to buy. I use them as a destination, not a trigger. I'd rather let price come to my level than pay up because someone upgraded a number.
Also, a stock isn't a coin
It doesn't trade 24/7, so a gap at the next open can jump over my stop. Because of that, I use a smaller size on stocks than I would on crypto, and I don't count on exact stop fills.
My hot topic today: can NVDA hold the 237.6 to 235.1 zone (the 14 and 21 MA)? If yes, buyers are still defending. If it falls through, the rest of the story gets more careful.
My plan (my own view, not advice):
Pullback long: 237.6 to 235.1
Stop loss: 4H close under 232.5 (below the 35 MA)
TP1: 243.5
TP2: 248
Breakout version: 4H close above 243.5 with a hold on retest, small starter, targeting 248 then 250
If 232.5 breaks: the short-term trend is damaged. I step aside, and the next real support is the purple 227.4. I'd only look for a bounce there, not before
Rough math on the pullback entry: about 4 points of risk for about 7 to 11 points of reward, so somewhere between 1.7R and 2.7R. That's decent, not amazing, which is why I'm patient and not aggressive.
My check-in
Calm, light, no oversized positions. I'm not worried about missing the move, because strong trends usually give you another entry. If this one doesn't, I just wait for the next.
Short answer to "are you bullish?": yes on the trend, patient on the entry. What would make you buy NVDA here, the breakout or the dip?