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Prediction Markets are becoming more interesting when the market itself is built around an event rather than an asset price.

Gate’s Combo × Esports Carnival Season is currently live, and the campaign runs until 9 October 2026 at 08:00 UTC. The idea is simple: instead of trading whether BTC or another asset moves up or down, you are trading the probability of a real-world event outcome. A YES price of 0.65, for example, roughly represents a 65% implied probability before considering fees, liquidity and market dynamics.

The part I find most interesting is Combo. You can combine two or more predictions into one order, but the trade-off is very clear: every selected prediction has to be correct for the Combo to win. If one leg fails, the entire Combo loses. That makes Combo less about randomly stacking outcomes and more about understanding how multiple event probabilities interact.

For this campaign, the qualifying markets are esports markets. New users, including existing Gate users who have never traded Prediction Markets before, can receive a 5 USDT first-trade reward if their first qualifying esports trade is at least 20 USDT. The reward is limited to the first 500 eligible users, so this is not an unlimited first-trade offer.

There is also a 10,000 USDT shared prize pool for users who reach at least 500 USDT in cumulative valid esports trading volume during the campaign. The distribution is proportional to qualifying users’ trading volume, with a maximum of 300 USDT per user. One important detail: users who receive a Top 10 Combo leaderboard reward cannot also claim this pool.

For the more aggressive participants, Gate has a separate 20,000 USDT Combo leaderboard for the Top 10 users by valid Combo trading volume. The thresholds are substantial: first place requires at least 840,000 USDT in cumulative Combo volume for a 5,000 USDT reward, while places 7–10 require at least 340,000 USDT for 1,000 USDT each. So this part is clearly designed for high-volume Combo traders rather than casual participation.

Then there is another layer that is easy to miss: Event Points Scratch Cards. Every 20 USDT of cumulative valid Prediction Markets volume earns one scratch card, while certain crypto price markets marked “2x” use a 10 USDT volume requirement per card. Every card wins something, with rewards that can include Prediction Vouchers, Event Points and other prizes, including a chance at the 88,888 PTS Super Lucky Prize.

The important distinction is that PTS are campaign Event Points, not a tradable token. And the campaign rewards are subject to Gate’s eligibility, registration, KYC, regional restrictions and final settlement rules. Users need to tap Join Now before participating if they want their activity counted.

Personally, I would look at Prediction Markets differently from normal spot or futures trading. The edge comes from research: team form, previous results, match conditions, lineups, map performance and live information can all change the probability behind a market. The displayed price is not a guarantee of the final outcome—it is simply what the market is pricing at that moment.

If you want to explore the campaign, the official pages are here:

Campaign page (join here): https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6426

Full announcement with rules: https://www.gate.com/announcements/article/101980

One thing I would not ignore: Combo can create a larger potential payout from a smaller stake, but its all-or-nothing structure also means adding more predictions increases the number of ways the entire position can fail. The higher potential return comes with higher outcome risk, so the strategy matters more than simply chasing the biggest quote.

@GateSquare @Gate_Square

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