#NvidiaHitsRecordHigh $NVDA

Everyone's asking "are you bullish?" The honest answer: yes on the trend, no on chasing this exact candle. Here's the full picture the way I see it on the chart.

The trend is clean, and that's the problem

NVDA is at about 240 on the 4H, and it's been a staircase up from the mid-210s in mid-September. The record high from Oct 2 has already been beaten, and price is now pressing right into the 240.8 resistance. Structure is textbook: all three moving averages (234.1, 232.4, 230.3) are stacked in order and sloping up, price is well above all of them, and MACD is positive and still expanding. Nothing about the trend is broken.

But look at the RSI: 75. That's overbought on the 4H. And price is stretched about 6 points above the nearest moving average. Strong trends can stay overbought for a long time, I know that. But buying a stretched candle right under resistance is where I've lost money before. Good trend, bad entry. Those are two different things.

Why analysts raising targets to 260 doesn't change my entry

Higher targets tell me the story is intact. They don't tell me where to buy. Targets move after price, not before it. I use the 260 number as a possible destination, not as a reason to enter. Same for semiconductor confirmation: I want to see the broader chip group moving with NVDA. If NVDA breaks out alone while the rest lags, that rally is thinner than it looks. If the group confirms, I trust it more.

1. Upside or better setup?
Upside exists, but I want a better setup. The cleaner trade is a pullback into the 234 to 232 zone (the 14 and 21 MA), not a market buy at 240.

2. What I'm watching next?

A 4H close above 240.83 that holds as support on a retest. That's a real breakout, not a wick
Whether RSI cools off without price breaking down (that's healthy digestion)
Whether the chip group confirms the move
One more thing: unlike crypto, stocks don't trade 24/7, so a gap at the next open is a real risk. I size smaller because of that

3. My move
I'm holding any existing exposure with a trailing stop, and I'm not adding at resistance.

My futures plan (my own view, not advice):

Long entry: 234 to 232.4 pullback (14 and 21 MA zone)
Stop loss: 4H close below 230 (under the 35 MA)
TP1: 240.8, then TP2: 245
Extended target: 250, with 260 as the analyst-target area
Breakout version: 4H close above 240.83 and a hold on retest, small starter only, targeting 245 then 250
If price loses the 230 zone and heads toward 225.4 (the purple support), I consider the short-term trend damaged and I step aside, no heroics

I won't short a trend this strong just because the RSI is high. Overbought can get more overbought. But I also won't buy the top of a vertical move and hope.

My view: bullish trend, patient entry. How are you playing it, buying the breakout or waiting for the dip?