🟢 Altcoins have begun climbing out of the “average loss” fairly confidently

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• A quick overview of the chart. The blue line is the median across 500 altcoins (not to be confused with the average): what share of holders of the alts in this list (500 coins) are already in profit (i.e., last moved them below the current price). The orange line shows the same for BTC, while the heatmap below lays out all 500 coins by market capitalization: red means almost the entire supply is at a loss, green means it is in profit
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This will probably be most relevant for those who got into alts with deep losses. For almost the entire year, the median hovered at the very bottom of the scale, but over the past 6 weeks it jumped from 3% to 23%—the strongest move in more than a year. Even after that move, however, more than 3/4 of the supply of a typical altcoin is still at a loss, so the heatmap below is still mostly red, while for BTC the number of wallets in profit is already much higher, at 70-75% (i.e., conversely, 3/4 of the supply is in profit)
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In my view, for alts, the direction matters more here than the figure itself: the bottom has stopped deepening, and the median has finally started moving up, and quite vigorously at that. At the end of 2022, it was also near zero, then climbed in steps—to around 45% at the beginning of 2023 and nearly 90% in 2024 (the path was deceptive, difficult, and took more than a year, but happiness eventually arrived). There is still a long way to go before reaching late-2024 profit levels, but I believe the first step out of the pit has already been taken
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🟣 For those stuck in alts, this is not salvation yet, but at least it is the first genuine reason for joy in a long time. I would not call this altseason until the median rises above at least 50%: then the profitable supply of most of the 500 coins will exceed the unprofitable supply. The road is still long, but for the first time since October 2025, it is heading uphill
$BTC $GT $ETH $SOL $DOGE
#onchain