Futures
Access hundreds of perpetual contracts
CFD
Gold
One platform for global traditional assets
Event Contracts
New
Predict price moves and seize opportunities
Options
Hot
Trade European-style vanilla options
Unified Account
Maximize your capital efficiency
Demo Trading
Introduction to Futures Trading
Learn the basics of futures trading
Futures Events
Join events to earn rewards
Demo Trading
Use virtual funds to practice risk-free trading
CFD
Stock CFD Derivatives
US Stocks
Access real US stocks and ETFs
HK Stocks
Trade quality Hong Kong-listed stocks
Korean Stocks
SK Hynix
Real Korean stocks and top assets
JP Stocks
Top Japanese stocks, all in one place
Stock Futures
High leverage, 24/7 trading
Stocks Activities
Trade Popular Stocks and Unlock Generous Airdrops
Tokenized Stocks
Backed by real stock assets
IPO Access
Unlock full access to global stock IPOs
Launch
CandyDrop
Collect candies to earn airdrops
Launchpool
Quick staking, earn potential new tokens
HODLer Airdrop
Hold GT and get massive airdrops for free
Pre-IPOs
Unlock full access to global stock IPOs
Alpha Points
Trade on-chain assets and earn airdrops
Futures Points
Earn futures points and claim airdrop rewards
Investment
Gate Earn
New
One-stop digital asset wealth management
Idle Earn
6.5%
Trade & earn at the same time
Simple Earn
Earn interest with idle tokens
Staking
Stake cryptos to earn in PoS products
Auto-Invest
Auto-invest on a regular basis
Dual Investment
Profit from market volatility
Soft Staking
Earn rewards with flexible staking
BTC Earn
3.05%
Enjoy a Limited-Time 3% Bonus APR
ETH Earn
6.82%
Enjoy a Limited-Time 5% Bonus APR
VIP Wealth Hub
11%
Limited-time 11% APR on USDT
Quant Fund
Top-tier quant strategies
GUSD
3.5%
Earn reliable returns from Treasury RWAs
Crypto Loan
0 Fees
Pledge one crypto to borrow another
Lending Center
One-stop lending hub
Promotions
AI
Gate AI
Your all-in-one conversational AI partner
Gate AI Bot
Use Gate AI directly in your social App
GateClaw
Gate Blue Lobster, ready to go
Gate for AI Agent
AI infrastructure, Gate MCP, Skills, and CLI
Gate Skills Hub
10K+ Skills
From office tasks to trading, the all-in-one skill hub makes AI even more useful.
The production capacity figure is the most concrete part of his remarks. Aramco's maximum sustainable capacity has been set at 12 million barrels per day, and Nasser confirmed that the company can reach that level quickly. Earlier reports in May indicated Aramco could hit that level within three weeks if required. His statement on Monday suggests the timeline has shortened, which matters because it tells the market that the kingdom has spare capacity available and is willing to use it. Aramco produced around 12.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter, but that figure includes non-crude volumes. The 12 million barrel figure refers specifically to crude oil.
The "scarily thin" buffer is the part of Nasser's message that carries the most weight for prices. Global commercial oil inventories are estimated at less than 6 billion barrels, a level that leaves little room to absorb further shocks. Since the conflict began, almost 3 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost, while only about 1 billion barrels have been released from strategic stocks. That gap is the reason the market has remained elevated even as exports from the Middle East have partially recovered. The barrels that were drawn down to fill the supply gap are not easily replaced, and Nasser's two-year estimate for replenishment reflects the scale of that deficit.
The timing of his comments is significant because it comes on the same day that reports emerged of another attack on the East-West pipeline, the critical artery that carries Saudi crude from the eastern fields to the Red Sea coast. The pipeline had only recently resumed operations after earlier drone strikes damaged a pump station in Khurais. Brent crude erased its earlier losses on the news and rose 0.79% to $103.06 a barrel, while WTI gained 0.50% to $91.57. The market's reaction was immediate, but it was also measured. The increase was small relative to the scale of the disruption because traders have already priced in a significant risk premium.
That premium is visible in the price levels. Brent is holding above $100, far above the roughly $72 it traded at before the conflict began in February. The gap between current prices and pre-war levels is the market's estimate of how much supply is at risk and how long the disruption might last. Aramco's price cuts for Asian buyers, announced last week, had pushed prices lower by signaling that the kingdom was prioritizing market share over price. But the pipeline attack on Monday reminded the market that the supply recovery is fragile and can be reversed by a single strike.
The strategic picture Nasser outlined is one of persistent constraint. He said pressure on the oil market will worsen until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and that even after it does, rebuilding global stocks will take up to two years. That is a longer timeframe than most analysts have been using. It implies that the market will remain tight well into 2028, even if the conflict ends soon. The implication for prices is that the risk premium is unlikely to disappear quickly, and that any renewed escalation will have an outsized effect because the buffer that normally absorbs shocks is no longer there.
The G7's decision to release up to 100 million barrels from strategic reserves over four months is an attempt to address exactly the problem Nasser described. But the release is a transfer of existing supply, not new production. It buys time, but it does not rebuild the buffer. Aramco's spare capacity is the only large-scale source of additional barrels that can be brought online quickly, and Nasser's willingness to use it is a signal that the kingdom is prepared to defend the market against further disruption. The question is whether the rest of the world can coordinate its response as effectively. His call for the global community to help ensure the free flow of goods is a diplomatic way of saying that the crisis requires more than one producer acting alone.
This article is not investment advice. Analysis is based on publicly available information and does not guarantee future outcomes.
$XBRUSD
#DramaticOilPriceVolatility
#OilPricesBreakThrough$100
The first force is supply. According to Kpler data, Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September. Volumes reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day, compared with an average of 18 million barrels per day before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began. Saudi Arabia alone was on track to export about 5.4 million barrels per day in September, more than double the 2.446 million barrels per day recorded in August, as the kingdom diverted crude through the Strait of Hormuz to compensate for damage to its Red Sea pipeline and the Yanbu port. JPMorgan now puts Middle East exports at 98% of pre-war levels. The barrels are moving, and they are moving in volumes that the market did not expect to see this soon.
The second force is Aramco's pricing decision. On Monday, the state oil company cut its November official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $3, setting it at $5 a barrel below the Oman/Dubai benchmark average. That is the widest discount since June 2020. Traders and refiners surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters had expected an increase of between $3 and $5, in line with gains in Middle Eastern benchmarks. Aramco went the other way. Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades were cut even deeper, by $5 each. Prices for northwest Europe and the Mediterranean were raised by $3 across all grades after exports from Yanbu resumed, while U.S. prices were left unchanged.
The logic behind the cut is market share. Asia is Saudi Arabia's most important market, and the recovery in Hormuz flows has given Gulf producers the ability to compete for volume again. Aramco is prioritizing barrels over price. The deeper cuts to medium and heavy grades point to particular weakness in sour crude demand, or a determination to place those barrels before competing producers can. For Asian refiners, the discount is a signal to take more Saudi term barrels, which could weigh on Dubai-linked spot grades and put pressure on other Gulf producers to follow with their own price reductions.
The split between Asia and Europe is telling. Asian buyers are being compensated for freight and security risk that Red Sea cargoes avoid. The Hormuz route now carries a real cost, and Aramco is pricing that cost into its Asian OSPs. European buyers, who receive cargoes via the shorter and safer Red Sea route after the Yanbu resumption, are paying a premium. The geography of the conflict has reshaped the pricing map, and Aramco is adjusting its official selling prices to reflect that reality.
The geopolitical backdrop remains volatile. Over the weekend, Yemen's Houthi forces claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and the Khurais area. Brent initially rose 0.79% to $103.06 on the news, and WTI gained 0.50% to $91.57. The rally faded quickly, however, as the market focused on the broader supply recovery. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven tanker attacks in or near the Strait of Hormuz, including a Kuwaiti very large crude carrier that caught fire on October 1. The attacks are real, but they are no longer moving the price the way they did a month ago. The market has absorbed a certain level of disruption as the new normal.
The third force is policy. On October 2, G7 leaders agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from their strategic reserves over four months, with a front-loaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days. The agreement was reached after a video conference chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron, as the United States pressured Europe to act and threatened a diesel export ban. The G7 also pledged not to impose export restrictions on energy products between member countries. The coordinated release through the International Energy Agency is the largest since the 400 million-barrel action in March, and it is aimed squarely at the diesel shortage that has pushed European premiums to record levels. For crude, the release adds supply to a market that is already loosening. For diesel, it addresses the product that is genuinely scarce.
The technical picture reflects the tension between physical loosening and lingering risk. Brent is holding above the $100 mark but has been unable to sustain a move above $103. The $103.59 level is the immediate resistance, with a cluster of levels between $105.90 and $108.01 above that. On the downside, the first meaningful support sits at $94.70, followed by a deeper zone between $78.65 and $70.19. WTI is trading below its 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages, which sit at $93.83, $95.31, and $94.51 respectively. The MACD is in negative territory at -1.14, and the DIF has crossed below the DEA, confirming that short-term momentum has turned lower. The $94.11 level is the near-term support for WTI; a sustained break below it would open the way toward the $76.47 area.
The net read is that the oil market is transitioning from a geopolitical risk premium to a physical supply story. The barrels are flowing, Aramco is cutting prices to defend market share, and the G7 is adding reserves to the market. Those are bearish forces for crude. But the attacks on tankers and Aramco facilities have not stopped, and the diesel market remains tight enough that the G7 felt compelled to act. The market is pricing both realities at once, and the result is a range-bound Brent between roughly $100 and $103. The direction of the next move will depend on whether the supply recovery holds or whether a new escalation reverses it. For now, the physical barrels are winning, but the risk premium has not disappeared.
This article is not investment advice. Analysis is based on publicly available information and does not guarantee future outcomes.
#ShareWeekly #PlanYourTradesThisWeek #𝐎𝐈𝐋