#BTCBreaksThrough$86,000 $BTC

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BTC Tagged 86,980 and Reversed Into My Rejection Block: Entry, Stop and Four Targets for the Next Leg Down

Two days ago I marked a rejection block at roughly 86,870 to 87,220, with a pool of stops sitting above 86,900, and a breaker block at 85,750 to 86,050. This morning BTC spiked to about 86,980, ran straight into that rejection block and reversed, and it is now at 85,429, about 1.8% off the high. In my earlier drawing the last push stopped near 85,400, and the real one went further than I drew. But it stopped exactly where the structure said it should, which is the part of the plan that matters.

The headline today talks about more than $1 billion of shorts liquidated and longs making up 71% of positioning. That was the September 23 breakout, when Alphractal estimated that longs were about 71% of the positions still open, one of the widest gaps since the October 2025 record. Today's squeeze was much smaller, about $113M of shorts against $25M of longs in 24 hours. My reading is the same either way: the shorts that fueled the push are gone, the leftover positioning leans long, and when price rejects at a prior high those longs become the fuel for the flush. And note the structure: today's high of 86,980 is a lower high under the 87,383.6 top from October 2. Options traders are stacked at $90,000 ($2.7B), $95,000 ($2.7B) and $100,000 ($2.3B), but that only matters if BTC gets back above 87,383.6, which it has failed to do three times.

Here is the plan. Entry is a short at 85,798.4, inside the breaker block. Price has already traded through it, so if you are not in, I prefer a retest to chasing 85,429. The stop is 88,291.2, about 907 points above the 87,383.6 high and above the rejection block, which is 2.91% from entry. Targets: TP1 at 84,000, 2.10% away, at the first demand block. TP2 at 83,400, 2.80%, the top of the change-of-character block. TP3 at 82,468, 3.88%, the liquidity resting under the trendline lows, which is where my yellow arrow points. TP4 at 81,161.9, 5.40%, the demand zone and the final target. My plan is to take about 30% at TP1, 30% at TP2, 20% at TP3 and 20% at TP4, and to move the stop to entry once TP1 is hit.

Be honest about the reward. Against a 2.91% stop, TP1 pays only about 0.7 to 1, TP2 about 1 to 1, TP3 about 1.3 to 1 and TP4 about 1.9 to 1. This is not a high-ratio scalp, it pays if the sweep to 82,468 happens, and that is why moving the stop to entry after TP1 matters. My original short from 86,460 is already about 1.2% in my favor, and I am using these same levels as the management map for it. My old TP3 and TP4 at 82,992 and 81,263 sit almost on top of TP3 and TP4 here.

Risk is where most people go wrong. A 2.91% stop is about 29% of your margin at 10x. At 30x or more your liquidation sits inside the stop, so the stop can never fire. If you risk 1% of your account, the position should be about 34% of the account, which is only about 3.4% of the account as margin at 10x. I would not use more than 10x on this.

What proves me wrong is an hourly close above 87,383.6. Today brings ISM services at 10:00 ET, with prices paid being the number to watch, Wednesday brings the Fed minutes, and ETF flows resume after the weekend. If the structure breaks I would rather take the loss than defend the chart.

Which comes first from here: a run to 90,000, or the sweep of 82,468?

Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decision. Leveraged trading can lose more than you expect.

@Gate_Square