Analysis of the reasons for the decline some time ago

1. Quarter-end institutional fund reallocation and ETF net outflows: September 30 (the last trading day of the third quarter) saw a typical quarter-end effect, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ending a 9-day streak of total net inflows of approximately $3.1 billion and recording daily outflows of $148.7 million. On the same day, Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of approximately $59.6 million, while Solana ETFs saw outflows of $11.1 million. This indicated that institutional capital, after a strong third quarter (Bitcoin gaining approximately 44% for the quarter and Ethereum approximately 70.9%), engaged in large-scale profit-taking and asset allocation rebalancing at the quarter-end.
2. Surge in macro U.S. Treasury yields pressured valuations: Driven by the recent rise in oil prices and persistent inflation concerns, expectations that high interest rates would remain higher for longer were reignited. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to approximately 5.30%, reaching its highest level since 2002, while the 30-year Treasury yield also reached 5.65%. The sharp surge in risk-free yields directly weakened the appeal of non-yielding risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
3. Long-position leverage liquidations triggered a cascading sell-off: Under the dual impact of spot selling pressure and macroeconomic stress, the derivatives market suffered a severe blow. Total crypto asset liquidations across the network at one point approached $600 million. Most of these involved forced liquidations of long positions (with single-day long liquidations alone reaching $164 million). This forced selling created a short-term negative feedback loop, directly causing Bitcoin to briefly fall below the $84,000 mark
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