#OneGate见证计划 #ZEC Zcash Falls 21% From Its High as ETF Outflows and North Korean Hacker Rumors Converge, but the Rally May Not Be Over

After surging 253%, Zcash has pulled back 21%, while the Grayscale ETF saw more than $30 million in single-day outflows, compounded by suspected North Korean hackers using its privacy pool to move stolen funds—the market's biggest question under this triple pressure is: Is this a pullback or the end? This article uses on-chain data and indicators to break down whether the privacy coin rally still has a second half.

Thursday was a tough day for Zcash.
ZEC is currently quoted at around $1,333.50, down 7.29% on the day, with about three hours remaining before the daily close. This means the privacy coin has fallen about 21% from the $1,698.00 peak it reached at the end of September. It also shows just how sharply ZEC had risen: it climbed about 253% from a starting point of $480.72 to reach that high.
The broader market offered little respite either.
Bitcoin surged to $85,600 on Wednesday after PCE inflation data came in below expectations, then quickly gave back its gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.29%, while CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October had fallen from 70% to below 50%.
First, let's look at ETF flows.
Grayscale launched the Zcash ETF, ticker ZCSH, on August 25, and by mid-September it had attracted $233 million in net inflows.
The fund recorded $30.25 million in net outflows yesterday, reducing cumulative net inflows to nearly $268 million. Its 3-for-1 share split also officially took effect that morning.
The Bit hack is another factor to consider, especially for market sentiment.
A group of hackers stole about $387 million from the exchange on September 24, up from the initial estimate of $351.6 million—because more transfers were later discovered on the Zcash and Tron chains. Bit's CEO said the attack bore the hallmarks of a North Korean hacking group, but the exact attribution remains under investigation. For a cryptocurrency determined to build a positive image on Wall Street, this is undoubtedly bad news.
On Wednesday, blockchain investigator ZachXBT flagged 2,746 ZEC (about $3.9 million) flowing from hacker-linked addresses into Zcash's privacy pool, where the sender, recipient, and amount are all concealed. The hacking incident was probably not the trigger for today's decline, and the $3.9 million involved is relatively limited in scale, but it certainly did not help.

What the chart says
Overall, Zcash remains in a strong bullish structure, but its price action over the past five days is pointing to a sharp correction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a buying and selling momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100. Its current reading is 50.2, in completely neutral territory, indicating that ZEC is neither overextended nor oversold.
Technically speaking, this is a relief compared with the persistently overbought readings during the previous advance. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 52.0. ADX measures trend strength rather than direction, and any reading above 25 is considered a genuine trend. A reading of 52 is very strong, but it mainly reflects the previous vertical surge, and because ADX lags, it may remain elevated even as prices fall. Exponential moving averages (EMAs) track average prices but assign greater weight to the most recent days. The 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA, keeping the trend structure bullish on paper. If the decline continues, the two lines will converge—which is usually how a trend change first becomes visible. However, reaching that point would require a sustained and rapid plunge in Zcash, which is unlikely in the short term.

Is the rally over, or is this a dip worth buying?
A 21% pullback after a 253% surge is not unusual. In June, ZEC fell from $635 to an intraday low of $309 after a key vulnerability in its privacy pool was disclosed. It then climbed steadily, eventually breaking above $1,600.
So at least for now, the charts look more like a correction than a collapse. Trend indicators have not turned bearish, but momentum has cooled, and the ETF has just recorded $30.25 million in outflows. A daily close below $1,233.00 will activate the golden zone, while reclaiming $1,410.72 would indicate that the rally is back on track.$ZEC