#HYPETreasuryHoldingsTop$3.2B $HYPE

A 54-Day Buyer Meets a One-Day Unlock: HYPE Treasury Demand vs the October 6 Supply Calendar

Hyperliquid Strategies, listed on Nasdaq as PURR, bought another 1.9M HYPE for $167.2M, an average near $88.0. That takes the treasury to about 37M HYPE, worth roughly $3.26B, plus $292.6M in cash. The buying has been steady: a linked wallet accumulated about 5.5M HYPE ($476M) over the past month, around 183,600 HYPE a day, at an average near $86.4. At 89.71, that month of buying is only about 4% in profit, so the treasury is not sitting on a big cushion on its recent purchases.

Now the supply. On Tuesday, October 6, about 9.92M HYPE unlocks for core contributors, worth roughly $890M at today's price and about 4.5% of circulating supply. At the treasury's current pace of 183,600 HYPE a day, absorbing that one unlock would take about 54 days of buying. The next day, October 7, 3.75M HYPE is being sold over the counter to a single buyer for about $329M, roughly $87.73 per token, which is about two PURR-sized purchases in one lot. There are offsets: Circle began routing USDC yield into HYPE buybacks on October 3, and the first $14.6M buys about 163K HYPE, roughly 1.6% of the unlock. Not every unlocked token gets sold, because contributors decide, but that is the quantity the market has to be ready to absorb.

The treasury structure matters too. About 37M HYPE is roughly 15% to 17% of circulating supply, depending on which supply count you use. PURR has been trading at a premium to the value of its holdings, around 1.17 times, which lets it issue shares and buy more HYPE, and there is a filing to raise up to $1B for that purpose. The loop works as long as the premium holds. If the premium fades, issuing shares stops being accretive and the biggest steady buyer has to slow down. Concentration cuts both ways.

On the hourly chart HYPE is at 89.71 with RSI at 59.65. The 99, 50 and 200 averages at 88.72, 89.01 and 89.32 are bunched within about 0.7%, resistance is 90.20 and support is 88.39. The Oct 1 low was about 84.65 and the dip on October 3 reached 86.2, so price has recovered about 6% off the low. The September 23 high near 98.0 is still about 8.5% above.

My bias is neutral until the supply clears, and I am not carrying a large long through Tuesday and Wednesday. I would rather buy a sweep into 86.2 to 88.39 after the unlock, with invalidation on a daily close below 84.65. Targets are 90.20, then about 94, then 98.0, which would be roughly 2.5 to 1 from the middle of that zone to 94. If HYPE instead closes a day above 90.20 on rising volume, I would chase toward 91.9 and 94 and stop thinking about the unlock.

Do you read treasury buying as a floor under HYPE, or as a flow that a single unlock can outweigh?

Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.
@Gate_Square