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‍#NonFarmPayrolls
Payrolls Missed by Over 50K, and Bitcoin Still Sold the News

The headline was 29,000 jobs against roughly 84,000 to 90,000 expected, but the line I would circle is wages. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month versus 0.3% expected, and 3.0% on the year, the weakest since May 2021. Add 60,000 of downward revisions to the prior two months and a three-month average near 50,000, and this is a clearly cooler labor market. The 4.2% unemployment rate looks worse than it is, because participation rose to a four-month high of 61.8%.

Did it change the Fed path? Only at the margin. Odds of a hold at the October 27 to 28 meeting rose to about 80% from 74% before the print, but a December hike is still priced near 86%, and the policy range sits at 3.75% to 4% after September's increase. Core PCE is still 3.0% year over year, and a soft payroll number does not override that. The 10-year yield dipped toward 5.18% on the release and then gave much of it back, after its 5.344% peak on Thursday.

The short-term reaction split in an interesting way. Stocks bought the cooler data: the S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,722.72, the Nasdaq gained about 1.2%, and Nvidia printed a record intraday high of 237.88. Bitcoin went the other way after the first move. It jumped from about 86,000 to 87,250 on the release, then gave back roughly 2,600 and now sits near 84,600, with a 24-hour range of 84,068 to 87,086 and a drop of about 2.4% on the day. Equities bought the news and crypto sold it, and that divergence is what I would watch heading into the weekend.

My bias on BTC is range-bound. The ceiling is 87,000 to 87,250, which capped the Friday spike, and the floor is the 84,068 low. I want to buy a retest of 84,068 only if it holds, with invalidation on a daily close below 82,281, the earlier breakout level. First target is 87,000. Only a daily close above 87,250 opens 90,000. Remember that US stock markets are closed until Monday, so any gap risk shows up there first, while crypto has to carry the weekend alone. The next catalysts are the Fed on October 28 and the next jobs report on November 6.

Do you read a weak payrolls print as bullish for crypto because it delays hikes, or bearish because it points to slower growth while inflation stays stuck near 3%?

Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.