#US30-YearTreasuryYieldHits5.595%,HighestSince2002

The bond market is starting to say something that the stock market cannot afford to ignore.

On September 29, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield pushed to around 5.62% intraday, reaching a level last seen in 2002. At the same time, the 10-year yield moved above 5.25%, close to its highest level since 2007. This is not just another number on a bond screen. Long-term yields influence the discount rate used across almost every major asset market.

What interests me is that the pressure is concentrated heavily at the long end. Higher energy prices are keeping inflation concerns alive, while heavy government borrowing and large amounts of bond issuance are adding another layer of pressure. The OECD also noted that long-term interest rates have risen to multi-year highs in many economies amid fiscal concerns and heavy issuance, even though broader financial conditions remain relatively supportive.

For NAS100, this matters because technology and growth companies are particularly sensitive to changes in the discount rate. When long-term yields rise, future earnings become less valuable in today's terms. That doesn't automatically mean tech stocks must fall, but it does mean the market needs stronger earnings growth to justify high valuations.

And there is an interesting contradiction here.

The economy has not simply collapsed under higher rates. The OECD currently projects 2.9% global growth for 2026, while strong AI-related investment is still supporting activity. So this isn't a simple “rates up = economy down” story. The market is dealing with two forces at the same time: economic resilience on one side and increasingly expensive capital on the other.

My focus now is not predicting whether NAS100 goes up or down next.

I want to watch the 10Y and 30Y yields together with inflation, labor data and earnings expectations. If yields stabilize, the pressure on growth-stock valuations can ease. But if long-term yields continue making multi-year highs while earnings expectations fail to keep pace, the valuation side of the market becomes much harder to ignore.

That is why I think the Treasury market deserves more attention right now.

The headline is 5.62% on the 30-year.

The real question is: how high can the cost of capital go before the equity market has to seriously reprice risk?

For NAS100, that may become more important than the next few candles on the chart.

@Gate_Square @GateSquare

DYOR