Post

The S&P 500 is near record highs while simultaneously becoming cheaper relative to expected growth. Normally, with a 10 yr moving toward 5.3%, you'd expect long-duration growth equities to have a serious problem.


Instead, earnings are rising faster than prices. What's changed is what investors are willing to pay for those earnings. Treasury yields above 5% have compressed the multiples investors will pay for future growth, leaving 2 enormous forces pushing against each other.
The bond market is raising the cost of capital, while the AI capex cycle is expanding the earnings base.
Now imagine earnings continue to grow while the 10 yr eventually falls from 5.3% back toward 4–4.5%.
Convexity!!
post-image
This page contains third-party content and does not constitute any advice, nor does it represent Gate's endorsement of such views. For details, please see disclaimer.
SPX500SPX500-0.09%


Add a comment
Add a comment

Comment
StarrySkyEarnsOneHundred
9 hours ago
Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up Keep it up
0View Original
SevenWhaleLord
21 hours ago
First Review
ETH’s independent momentum is currently very weak and is completely following BTC. Before placing a trade, be sure to glance at whether BTC (Bitcoin) is rallying or being dumped; the broader market direction determines whether ETH’s breakout is genuine.
For ETH, watch 2725, 2740, and 2695—there may be unexpected gains.
0View Original