#GateMemeCarnival #SHIB
If we evaluate my previous outlook based on the September 30th close and the levels identified at that time, the result is quite clear: the main thesis was largely validated, though the upward breakout did not occur. SHIB currently remains in a decision zone.
1. What was my previous view?
The core thesis of that assessment was as follows:
* $0.000006–$0.0000061: main resistance / breakout zone
* Sustained trading above $0.0000061: potential for $0.0000067, or $0.0000072 with stronger momentum
* $0.0000055–$0.0000056: critical support
* Below $0.0000055: risk of a retreat to the $0.0000051–$0.0000052 zone
* The burn rate drop of over 91% does not determine the price on its own
* In the short term, liquidity, demand, risk appetite, and market structure are more important than burn data
The key aspect of this framework was that it outlined three scenarios rather than a single, one-way prediction.
2. What price action actually occurred?
The resistance level was where the previous outlook was most strongly validated.
SHIB reached $0.00000607 on September 26 and $0.00000601 on September 27—meaning it did indeed reach the $0.000006–$0.0000061 zone. However, it failed to sustain a position above this level with a daily close. On September 28, it retreated to $0.00000568. The closing price on September 30 was around $0.00000575–$0.00000576. It closed at approximately $0.00000579 on October 1, and data for October 2 shows a figure of around $0.000005875.
My previous scenario
Outcome
Holding above $0.0000061 → $0.0000067
Did not occur
Sideways movement between $0.0000055 and $0.0000061
✅ This scenario played out
Below $0.0000055 → $0.0000051–$0.0000052
$0.0000055 was tested, but the break was not sustained
It was particularly significant that an intraday low of $0.00000550 was recorded on September 29. However, the price recovered to $0.00000576 on the same day. Consequently, while the trigger for the bearish scenario was tested, it was not confirmed.
Conclusion: The approach from my previous analysis—"no clear direction; if resistance isn't broken, the range-bound movement continues"—aligned very well with the actual price behavior.
3. So, why wasn't the $0.0000061 level broken?
A significant part of my previous thesis has been confirmed here as well.
SHIB staged a strong recovery in September; however, this rally met with selling pressure at the resistance zone. September marked one of SHIB's strongest monthly performances of the year, with various data sources reporting a monthly gain in the range of approximately 10%–13.5%. The recovery from the July lows is even more pronounced.
However, a recovery does not equal confirmation of a trend reversal.
The structure we are currently seeing looks more like this:
A low around $0.0000041 → strong recovery → supply/selling around $0.000006 → sideways consolidation.
Therefore, the key distinction from my previous analysis remains valid:
The fact that SHIB has risen is not proof of a trend reversal above $0.0000061.
4. The previous view regarding the "burn" was particularly accurate.
There is an interesting development here.
The burn rate dropped by over 91%, falling to a level of approximately 338,000 SHIB. Despite this, the price did not collapse. This supports the thesis from my previous analysis:
“While the burn data is noteworthy, it is not the sole driver of the price in the short term.”
More importantly, in terms of absolute magnitude, the daily burn volume is not significant enough to single-handedly alter the price against SHIB’s circulating supply of approximately 589 trillion. The mechanical impact of burning 338,000 SHIB on the price is negligible.
Therefore, moving forward, it is more accurate to weigh burn-related news for SHIB as follows:
Burn → long-term supply narrative
Liquidity + volume + BTC/meme-coin risk appetite + exchange flows → short/medium-term price
This distinction reinforces my previous view.
5. A new and significant development: The movement of 500 billion SHIB to exchanges
New data has emerged here.
Approximately 500.12 billion SHIB was moved to exchanges within a 24-hour period. At first glance, this might appear to signal significant selling pressure. However, more detailed data reports that the amount of SHIB withdrawn exceeded the amount deposited—meaning the net flow was negative.
This is an important nuance.
Therefore:
An inflow of 500 billion does not automatically signal a sell-off.
What really needs to be monitored is the direction of the net exchange flow over the course of several days or weeks.
If we observe sustained net inflows rather than isolated one-day transfers, the bearish case gains weight. Conversely, if net outflows persist, it could be interpreted as a reduction in the exchange supply available for sale.
6. The bigger picture: SHIB is no longer moving in isolation
The market movement on October 2nd is also significant.
Current data shows SHIB rising by approximately 3–4%, while Bitcoin and Dogecoin are moving in a similar direction; the total crypto market capitalization has also increased. This suggests that SHIB’s movement at this stage is linked to general risk appetite rather than a catalyst specific to SHIB itself.
Additionally, Bitcoin has risen by over 40% in the third quarter of 2026, with ETF inflows contributing to the recovery. However, risks such as rising bond yields and a slowdown in spot demand are also being reported.
This is critical for SHIB because:
If BTC is strong → risk appetite for meme coins may increase → SHIB could retest the $0.0000061 level. But:
If BTC loses momentum → SHIB’s structure—already sitting below resistance—becomes even more fragile.

7. How has my current view changed?
I am not completely abandoning my previous stance; however, I am shifting to a slightly more neutral position.
The critical scenario right now:
To the upside
$0.0000060–$0.0000061
If a daily/weekly close and a high-volume breakout occur here, the $0.0000067 zone mentioned in the previous analysis becomes relevant again.
Surpassing $0.0000061 for just a few hours is not enough. What matters to me is:
breakout + close + volume + successful retest.
In the middle
$0.0000055–$0.0000061
This is the key zone right now.
The fact that the price remains within this range indicates that the September recovery hasn't been completely invalidated, though a new uptrend hasn't been confirmed either.
To the downside:
$0.0000055
This level is now even more critical.
It was tested and held on September 29.
If it breaks decisively below this level, my previous $0.0000051–$0.0000052 scenario comes back into play.
8 So, how should we evaluate my previous prediction?
Rather than a simple "right or wrong" verdict, let's break it down into its components:
Resistance analysis: confirmed.
The $0.000006–$0.0000061 range proved to be a genuinely strong selling zone.
Sideways scenario: largely confirmed.
The price remained within this band.
Bullish breakout: did not occur.
No sustained move above $0.0000061 was achieved.
Bearish breakdown: has not occurred yet.
$0.0000055 was tested, but no confirmation of a downward move followed.
The view that my "burn" thesis would be weak in the short term: confirmed.
The 91% drop in the burn rate did not cause the price to crash on its own.
Therefore, the most successful aspect of my previous outlook wasn't predicting a specific price target, but rather identifying in advance which levels would alter the scenario.
10. What will I be watching closely from here on out?
For SHIB, it makes more sense to monitor indicators in this order:
1. A break above $0.0000061
The most important technical threshold. 2. $0.0000055 support
The lower limit indicating whether the recovery has been invalidated.
3. BTC’s direction and general crypto liquidity
A stronger short-term factor than SHIB’s independent narrative.
4. SHIB net exchange flow
A trend spanning several days, rather than a single-day transfer of 500 billion tokens.
5. Actual trading volume
If volume does not increase during the break above $0.0000061, the reliability of the breakout is lower.

6. Burn amount / circulating supply ratio
One must look at the absolute magnitude of the burn relative to the supply, rather than the percentage change.
Updated framework
Close above $0.0000061 with high volume → new technical evidence that the recovery is continuing
$0.0000055–$0.0000061 → current consolidation continues
Below $0.0000055 → a scenario where the September recovery is invalidated and the $0.0000051–$0.0000052 zone regains importance
Since the current price is approximately $0.00000588, SHIB remains squarely between these two critical thresholds.
Therefore, I am not completely reversing my previous view for today; the key update is this: the September recovery should no longer be viewed as "the start of a rally," but rather as an unconfirmed rebound occurring below the $0.0000061 level.
$SHIB

‌$DOGE

‌$SPCX

‌$NVDA