#每周来晒 #Nonfarm Payrolls Data

Nonfarm payrolls are out, so let’s discuss several trading directions I’m watching.

First, a review of the data: September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, versus expectations of 84,000; the unemployment rate was 4.2%, versus expectations of 4.1%; the previous figure was also revised down by 60,000. This set of data has a “two-way” impact on the market—it is bullish for risk assets in the short term, but exposes concerns about a weakening economy over the medium term.

Direction one: Bitcoin. After the data, BTC briefly surged to $87,000, up more than 3% intraday. BTC had previously traded sideways between $82,500 and $85,700 for a week, and has now broken above the upper end of the range. Personally, I think a pullback toward $85,000 followed by stabilization would be a reference point worth watching for entry. Above that, watch the $90,000 round-number level.

Direction two: Gold. Gold also rose after the nonfarm payrolls report, with New York gold futures gaining about 1% to $4,250 per ounce. However, gold faces a contradiction: cooling expectations for rate hikes are bullish for gold, but US Treasury yields remain elevated above 5%, putting pressure on non-yielding assets. Some analysts have noted that if US Treasury yields retreat from their highs while nonfarm payrolls come in below expectations, gold could see a pulse-like rebound. In the short term, watch the battle around the $4,200-$4,250 range.

Direction three: US stocks. All three major stock indexes rose together on Friday, with the Dow up 0.63%, the S&P 500 up 0.87%, and the Nasdaq up 1.21%. Nvidia rose 2.06% to hit another record high, while Tesla gained 2.49%. Technology stocks are the most sensitive to interest-rate expectations, and cooling rate-hike expectations directly benefit growth-stock valuations.

Risk-control reminder: Some traders recommend avoiding chasing orders during the first minute after the data release, and instead focusing on whether the two-year US Treasury yield, the US Dollar Index, and gold provide synchronized confirmation. I think this is a very practical approach—the first wave of volatility after nonfarm payrolls is often emotional, and the win rate is actually higher after waiting for confirmation signals from the second wave.

In the current market environment, which direction’s trading opportunities are you paying more attention to? Let’s discuss together 💪