#US30-YearTreasuryYieldHits5.595%,HighestSince2002 $TLT

The 30-Year Yield Hit About 5.69% Intraday, Then Bonds Snapped Back: Has the Long End Exhausted Itself?

I want to start with a wick on the TLT hourly chart, because it tells the story better than the yield headline. The number in the hashtag, 5.595%, was the September 29 print after six straight rising sessions. It did not stop there. On Thursday the 30-year pushed to roughly 5.69% intraday and the 10-year to about 5.34%, both the highest since 2002, after a manufacturing report showed input prices surging. Then buyers stepped in. The 10-year closed the gap to roughly 5.24% and the 30-year to about 5.61%. On the chart, that is the dip to around 76.2 and the immediate recovery.

The backdrop is not subtle. Elevated energy prices are feeding inflation expectations, heavy corporate debt issuance is competing for the same capital, and the third quarter was the biggest quarterly jump in 10-year yields since 1994. October hike odds were near 68% on September 29 before the soft PCE print pushed pricing toward December. At the same time a few well-known bond investors have started to say the selloff is overdone, including one who is turning bullish on Treasuries for the first time in six years. That is how bottoms often get argued, but arguments are not confirmation.

The tape is still clearly bearish. TLT is at 77.53 on the hourly, below its 50, 99 and 200 averages at 77.96, 78.61 and 79.47, all sloping down. RSI is 42.79 and the MACD is flat at -0.01. Price is down about 5.5% from roughly 82 on September 22. Resistance sits at 78.30 and support at 77.16, and the wick low near 76.2 is the level that matters most.

My bias is bearish while TLT trades below 77.96, and I only change it on an hourly close above 78.61, because that is where a yield peak would start to look real. A break under 77.16 puts the 76.2 low back in play. If I wanted a contrarian long I would only try it on a flush back into 76.2 to 76.5 with a stop under 75.80, targeting 78.30 and then 78.61. Anything else is guessing the top.

Do you think a 30-year yield near 5.6% is the start of a durable move higher, or the kind of blow-off level that gets sold after a record quarter?

Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.