#MicronReportQ4Earnings $MU

Micron Printed $54.23B and the Stock Shrugged: The Guide Is the Real Story

Options were pricing a move of roughly 7% to 10% around this report, and Micron delivered a quarter that should have used it: revenue of $54.23B against about $51.07B expected, adjusted EPS of $33.42 against roughly $31.72, and a gross margin of 87.0% on a non-GAAP basis. The stock barely moved after hours. That tells me the market already owned the quarter, so the beat was not the trade.

What was not fully owned is the guide. Q1 revenue is guided to $61.5B plus or minus $1.5B against roughly $56.64B in consensus, about 8.6% higher, and EPS to $38.15 against $35.40. Management also said the vast majority of calendar 2027 HBM bit supply is already contracted at significantly higher prices, which goes straight at the FY2027 visibility question, although no HBM revenue figure was given. Two caveats I would not skip. Q4 was a 14-week quarter, and adjusted for the extra week sequential growth is closer to 21.5% than the headline 30.8%. Q1 gross margin is also guided below Q4's level while R&D and factory spending keep rising.

On valuation, fiscal 2026 EPS was $75.52 on $133.19B of revenue. At 1,098.01, MU trades around 14.5x that, and only about 7.2x the annualized Q1 EPS guide of $38.15 times four. A market paying seven times run-rate earnings for a business with contracted supply is saying it does not trust the margin to last. That is the honest debate: peak-cycle earnings or a new baseline.

The hourly chart shows the same tension. MU sits at 1,098.01 with RSI at 63.41, and the 14, 21 and 35 averages are bunched at 1,069.16, 1,069.63 and 1,068.64, about 2.7% below price. After the print it dipped under the 1,042.16 support to roughly 1,025 and recovered about 7% within a day. Now it is pressing 1,101.30 resistance, just under the late-September highs, with the MACD histogram at 3.15.

My bias is bullish while hourly closes hold above the 1,069 cluster. I want to buy pullbacks into 1,069 to 1,070, not the first tag of 1,101.30 with RSI already in the low 60s and the whole chip group extended. Invalidation is an hourly close under 1,042.16. A clean break above 1,101.30 targets 1,125 first and 1,150 second.

Do you trade the beat, or wait for the guide to do the talking? And does 7x run-rate earnings look like a bargain to you, or a warning?

Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.