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‍#HYPE
Hyperliquid to unlock $856 million worth of HYPE on October 6

$HYPE accounts for the largest share of the $1.3 billion in token unlocks expected in the crypto market this October.

HYPE rose 1.85% in September, and investors are watching to see if this momentum carries over into October.

The impact of the significant supply increase on the price will depend on market demand in early October 2024.

Hyperliquid is gearing up for one of the crypto market's largest token unlocks this October. On October 6, it will release HYPE tokens worth $856 million into circulation. This amount represents the largest portion of the total token unlocks expected across the broader crypto market next month.

Uncertainty remains regarding the price outlook

It is difficult to predict with certainty how large-scale token unlocks will affect prices. While the influx of new supply can increase selling pressure in some instances, this effect often remains limited during periods of strong demand. A similar dynamic applies to HYPE this October.

Nevertheless, some investors believe that the optimism often seen in the crypto market during the final quarter—frequently referred to as "Uptober"—could provide support for HYPE. Ultimately, however, how this expectation translates into price action will depend on market demand following the unlock.

September performance kept expectations alive

Hyperliquid maintained its streak of positive monthly returns in September, with HYPE rising approximately 1.85% during the month. Although this increase was limited, it signaled to market participants that the momentum had not entirely vanished.

Investors are now focused on whether this trend can carry over into October. If the current trend holds, HYPE could close its third consecutive month in positive territory. However, the large-scale supply scheduled for October 6 is expected to be a decisive factor in short-term price movements.
As of October 1, 2026, HYPE is trading around $90.9, having moved within the $85.0–$91.7 range during the day. Notably, HYPE is hovering very close to its recent record high levels as a major token unlock event approaches.

Key HYPE technical zones

Zone Level What to watch

Major resistance $92–95 Breakout zone; rejection here could trigger profit-taking

Resistance $88–92 Current all-time high / price discovery zone

Pivot $84–86 Holding this level maintains a positive short-term structure

Support $79–82 First significant pullback / buying interest zone

Strong support $72–76 Key structural zone; losing it would weaken momentum

Major support $68–70 Deeper correction / potential accumulation zone

Extreme support $62–65 Scenario for a larger correction

The $84–86 zone is currently of particular importance. If HYPE breaks above the $92–95 level with high volume and subsequently holds that area, the market will enter a price discovery phase. Conversely, a decisive loss of the ~$84 ​​level makes a move toward the $79–82 range much more likely. There is also historical technical support near the lower end of the $70 range: a previous technical analysis had identified $72 as a critical level for confirming upward momentum and $50–51 as a much deeper support level; however, these levels were established prior to the recent rally.

The October 6 unlock event — the most critical variable

The event on October 6 will see the release of approximately 9.92 million HYPE tokens (1% of the total supply) allocated to core contributors. At current prices, this equates to a nominal value of roughly $856 million.

However, the unlocking of $856 million worth of tokens does not mean they will immediately result in $856 million in sales.
This distinction is crucial. According to recent reports, a separate tranche of 3.75 million HYPE—associated with the team allocation—is being handled via a private over-the-counter transaction with an institutional buyer, rather than being dumped directly onto public exchanges.

Therefore, rather than focusing on the headline token unlock figure, I would pay closer attention to exchange deposits and "whale" transfers.

My scenario map for the post-October 6 period

I wouldn't make a single definitive price prediction; instead, I would base my scenario analysis on the following levels:

Bullish absorption

The unlock occurs without significant inflows to exchanges.

HYPE holds the $84–$86 range.

It breaks above the $92–$95 level.

Next psychological levels: $100, followed potentially by $105–$110.

Neutral / absorption phase

HYPE drops below $90 but holds the $79–$82 range.

A 10–15% correction from the pre-unlock price would bring HYPE roughly into the $77–$82 zone.

The market then attempts to recover before a potential new upside breakout.

Heavy sell-pressure scenario

Breaking the $84 level → failure to hold the $79–$82 range.

Next key zone: $72–$76.

A move toward the $68–$70 levels would signal a much deeper post-unlock correction. What could the HYPE price be after the unlock?

Using today's price of ~$91 as a reference, my scenario ranges would be as follows:

Strong buying interest (absorption): $95–$110+

Normal volatility / digestion process: $77–$90

Heavy selling: $68–$76

Extreme risk-off environment: $60–$68

One reason I am not automatically assuming a major crash is that previous HYPE token unlocks did not trigger a uniform reaction.

Tokenomics data reveals varied outcomes; some unlocks were followed by relatively minor dips, while others led to steeper corrections.

The key level I will be watching is $84–86.

Above this level, the market could maintain an aggressive bullish structure. A decisive loss of this level—either before or after October 6—would shift focus to the $79–82 range, followed by $72–76.
‍$HYPE