Market Analysis: BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT

Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)
On the daily timeframe, BTC is currently trading at approximately $82,972, reflecting a 2.16% decrease over the last 24 hours. The asset recently faced rejection at the $87,380 level. On the 4-hour chart, the price has dropped below all tracked Exponential Moving Averages (EMA5 at $83,468, EMA10 at $83,812, and EMA30 at $83,953).

Momentum indicators show short-term bearish conditions. The MACD on the 4-hour chart has crossed below the signal line (MACD: -191.8, DIF: -122.4, DEA: 69.4). The On-Balance Volume (OBV) on the 4-hour chart is at 26,408, below its moving average of 50,523, indicating selling pressure. Immediate support levels are identified at $82,558 (24-hour low) and $81,141. Resistance stands at $85,118 and $87,380. On the daily chart, the price remains above the EMA30 ($79,962), suggesting the longer-term trend structure is still intact.

Ethereum (ETH/USDT)
ETH is trading at approximately $2,662, down 1.68% in the past 24 hours. Similar to BTC, ETH faced rejection at a recent high of $2,806.87. On the 4-hour chart, the price is below the EMA5 ($2,665), EMA10 ($2,675), and EMA30 ($2,681).

The 4-hour MACD shows a bearish crossover (MACD: -5.78, DIF: -4.98, DEA: 0.79). The OBV is trending downward at -1,862,277, below its moving average of -1,270,105. Immediate support is located at $2,634 (24-hour low) and $2,580. Resistance is at $2,716 and $2,806. On the daily timeframe, ETH is testing its EMA10 ($2,660) and remains above the EMA30 ($2,539).

Macroeconomic Context
This is a highly important week for the US economy. The US fiscal year officially ends on September 30. The conclusion of the fiscal year typically involves significant treasury operations, institutional portfolio rebalancing, and liquidity adjustments. This period frequently introduces increased volatility across traditional and digital asset markets. Market participants are also monitoring upcoming US economic data releases and Federal Reserve communications, which will provide further direction on monetary policy.

Risk Assessment

· Downside Risks: A breakdown below immediate support levels ($82,558 for BTC and $2,634 for ETH) could trigger further corrective movement toward the next support zones at $81,141 (BTC) and $2,580 (ETH). End-of-fiscal-year liquidity constraints in the US could exacerbate selling pressure.
· Upside Risks: Reclaiming the short-term EMAs on the 4-hour chart could signal a temporary stabilization. Positive macroeconomic data or dovish signals from the Federal Reserve could provide upward momentum, targeting resistance at $85,118 (BTC) and $2,716 (ETH).
· Volatility Risk: The combination of technical resistance rejections and the US fiscal year-end creates an environment prone to sharp, unpredictable price movements in both directions.

Conclusion
Both BTC and ETH are in a short-term corrective phase following recent highs, with technical indicators reflecting current selling pressure. The broader daily trend remains above key long-term moving averages. Market direction in the coming days will be heavily influenced by the end of the US fiscal year, upcoming economic data, and whether current support levels hold.

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