This week’s PCE and nonfarm payrolls: I’m more interested in whether the data will “conflict”

The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%—4%. So the key this week is not guessing whether it will change course, but seeing whether the upcoming data will support keeping rates high.
First, there is the August PCE report released on September 30. The previous report showed that July headline PCE rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE rose 3.3% year over year, meaning inflation remains some distance from the 2% target. Next is the September nonfarm payrolls report on October 2. Neither report has been released yet, so it is too early to treat “cooling inflation” or “weakening employment” as settled conclusions.
What I think deserves the most attention is the possibility of the data moving in opposite directions: if inflation remains high while employment starts to weaken, the Federal Reserve will face a tougher choice, and the market may swing repeatedly between the two expectations. For BTC, I’ll first watch how Treasury yields and the dollar move after the data is released, then see whether the price can hold steady, rather than chasing trades based solely on the immediate price move when the data comes out.
There may be volatility opportunities this week, but position sizes and leverage need to leave room for unexpected market moves.
#BTC
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