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My view: This is a significant and hawkish signal regarding interest rates; however, the inflation component is more important than the headline PMI figure itself.
* Growth is exceptionally strong: The September composite PMI index rose to 58.4, reaching its highest level since July 2021. S&P Global also reports rising employment and significant capacity constraints.
* The inflation signal is concerning: The rise in input costs has rapidly accelerated, partly reflecting high energy/transportation costs and supply constraints. Selling price inflation has also increased.
* Implications for the Fed: The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 and clearly stated that inflation remains high. The combination of strong growth and high price increases makes it easier to justify another rate hike if subsequent inflation data confirms the PMI signal.
* Treasury bonds: The market reaction is logical. Strong growth and persistent inflation are leading to reduced expectations for easing and increased risks of tightening. While this pushes up short-term bond yields, long-term yields are also being influenced by concerns regarding fiscal policy and supply-side issues. Reuters reported that expectations for rate hikes strengthened again following the release of the PMI data.
The key distinction is this: This is not merely a story of an "overheating economy." It could be a story of an "overheating economy plus sticky inflation"—a scenario that could prove far more problematic for bonds. It is necessary to monitor core PCE/CPI data, wage growth, the upcoming employment report, and whether selling price inflation tracks the rise in input costs. If these indicators confirm the PMI data, the market may continue to revise upward its pricing regarding the Fed's policy path and Treasury yields. Otherwise, the September PMI data could prove to be merely a strong but transitory burst of economic activity.
Consequently, the current market environment can be summarized as characterized by a hawkish Fed, upward pressure on yields, and a supported US dollar; assets sensitive to duration face the most direct pressure in this context.
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$SAGA