#Glassnode称BTC呈牛市特征 Bitcoin Reclaims 80K, Bull Market Features Gradually Emerge, Big-Data Review and Projections for the Road Ahead!

Bitcoin has once again climbed above the $80,000 mark, prompting many to ask: Is this merely a powerful rebound, or is a new bull market officially opening up?
Looking at multidimensional big data across macro factors, ETF flows, on-chain holdings, and derivatives, structural bull market features are gradually emerging, but prices will not rise in a straight line in the short term; volatility and pullbacks are an inevitable part of the process.
✅Several Bull Market Signals Have Already Emerged
1. Institutional funds are returning, and ETF net inflows continue to recover
Weekly inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have repeatedly reached new highs for the current phase, while leading products such as BlackRock's are no longer experiencing continuous net outflows. Funds are no longer merely engaging in short-term speculation; allocation-oriented capital is gradually entering the market. Combined with listed companies such as Bitmine and Strategy continuing to accumulate BTC in large batches, this is creating a foundation of long-term buying—the biggest difference between this rally and an ordinary rebound.
2. Holder structure: Whales accumulate at the bottom while circulating coins are locked up
On-chain data shows that when the price fell toward $60,000, whale addresses holding more than 100 BTC continued to buy, accumulating tens of thousands of BTC in total. Meanwhile, retail investors cut losses and exited during the decline, with holdings transferring from retail investors to institutions and whales. BTC inventories on exchanges continue to decline, while over-the-counter absorption has strengthened. With fewer sell-side holdings available in the market, a recovery in sentiment could easily trigger an elastic rally.3. Improving expectations for macro liquidity
U.S. inflation data came in as expected, and the market has begun to reprice the rate-cut timetable. Expectations for long-term liquidity have improved, lifting risk-asset sentiment. Bitcoin increasingly resembles a high-beta macro asset rather than an entirely independent niche-market trade, and the correlations among U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC have clearly strengthened.
4. Technicals: Trend structure is recovering
The price has held above key moving averages and formed a bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows. The ADX indicator has continued rising from low levels, volatility (ATR) has broken out of a prolonged slump, and the Bollinger Bands have shifted from contraction to expansion, matching the technical characteristics of a trend move getting underway.
The previous crash looked more like a deep correction during a bull market than the restart of a bear market.
Three Scenarios for the Road Ahead (Big-Data Probability Perspective)
Scenario 1: High-level consolidation and shakeout (highest probability) $80,000–$82,000 is a major resistance zone with heavy holdings, where large amounts of underwater positions and ETF average cost bases are concentrated, creating concentrated selling pressure. Prices will most likely engage in repeated tug-of-war here: a rapid spike upward followed by a pullback, flushing out short-term leveraged buyers chasing the rally.
Key support reference: $77,000–$78,000. As long as the weekly chart does not effectively break below this range, the bullish structure remains intact, representing healthy rotation within a bull market.
Scenario 2: Volume-backed breakout opens up upside
Two conditions must be met simultaneously: sustained large ETF inflows and a simultaneous increase in spot trading volume, rather than a move driven solely by short liquidations. After holding above $82,000, the next target would be the $90,000 mark. But remember: rallies driven purely by a short squeeze have poor staying power; only a relay of spot buying can make the breakout valid.
Scenario 3: Deep pullback and a second bottom (low probability, but cannot be ignored)
Triggers include CPI rising above expectations again, delayed rate-cut expectations, or unexpected regulatory bad news. If the $77,000 support fails, the price could retest the strong support zone near $72,000. Even if a pullback occurs, the center of the holder distribution has already risen compared with the previous period, making a direct move to new lows relatively unlikely.
The biggest risks at present must be watched closely
There is heavy overhead supply above $80,000, and chasing the rally could easily lead to a sharp short-term pullback. Contract leverage is especially dangerous, as wicks can liquidate both longs and shorts in large numbers. Macro data could reverse market expectations at any time, while statements from the Federal Reserve and inflation data are uncontrollable variables.
A bull market ≠ prices only going up. Pullbacks in a bull market can also be extremely violent, and many people will be shaken out during consolidation and shakeouts.
💡Trading perspective: In the early stages of a bull market, two things should be avoided above all: blindly taking oversized positions while chasing highs, and waiting stubbornly for an extreme low only to miss the entire move.
Spot investors should build positions in batches and buy dips during consolidation. Short-term traders should wait for breakout confirmation or a retest of support before choosing an entry, rather than heavily betting on a one-way move in the core $80K resistance zone.
A true bull market is never built in a single move. It is gradually constructed through repeated advances, rotation, pullbacks, and new highs.
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