#KashkariSaysInflationStillTooHigh

#美联储卡什卡利称通胀仍过高 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC

Fed Turns More Hawkish: Is Another Rate Hike Coming in October?

The September Fed decision was not simply a one-time rate move. The bigger story is that policymakers have shifted toward a higher-for-longer stance, while keeping the next move dependent on incoming inflation and employment data.

On September 16, the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed said economic activity remained solid but emphasized that inflation was still elevated and that policy needed to support a more timely return toward the 2% inflation goal.

The September projections also showed a relatively high policy path. The median federal funds rate projection was around 4.1% for the end of 2026, while PCE inflation was projected at 3.7% for 2026 before declining toward 2.3% in 2027.

The key question for markets is therefore no longer whether September would bring a hike.

It is whether the Fed follows with another increase at its October 27–28 meeting, or waits for additional inflation and employment data.

Why Are Fed Officials Becoming More Hawkish?

The main concern is broader than energy prices.

Inflation remains above the Fed’s target, while some parts of the services economy continue to show price pressure. Energy can amplify the problem by increasing transportation and operating costs, but the Fed also has to watch whether those increases spread into other goods and services.

That creates a potential chain reaction:

Higher energy prices → higher transportation costs → higher service costs → persistent inflation expectations → slower return toward 2%

This is why comments from officials such as Neel Kashkari are attracting market attention.

The concern is not simply that one inflation reading is high. The concern is whether inflation is becoming persistent enough to prevent the Fed from easing policy quickly.

October Hike: What Should Traders Watch?

Market expectations can change rapidly because interest-rate futures continuously adjust to incoming data.

Rather than focusing on one probability figure, four variables are more important.

1. Inflation

The next PCE and CPI reports will be critical.

If monthly core inflation remains around or above 0.3%, especially with services and housing remaining firm, expectations for another hike could strengthen.

If inflation falls toward 0.1%–0.2% monthly readings, pressure for an immediate follow-up hike would likely weaken.

2. Oil Prices

Energy has become an important inflation variable.

A sustained move higher in crude oil would strengthen the argument that inflation risks are not disappearing quickly.

Conversely, if geopolitical pressure eases and oil prices retreat, the Fed would have more room to wait and assess the incoming data.

3. Employment

The labor market remains another major part of the equation.

A resilient labor market combined with sticky inflation would give policymakers more flexibility to maintain restrictive policy.

A significant deterioration in employment would create the opposite problem: another hike could increase the risk of unnecessarily weakening economic activity.

4. Financial Conditions

Treasury yields, the dollar, credit conditions and broader financial-market liquidity also matter.

If financial conditions tighten substantially without another Fed hike, policymakers may have less incentive to deliver consecutive increases.

Why a September Hike Does Not Automatically Mean Consecutive Hikes

A unanimous September decision should not be interpreted as a guarantee of another hike at the next meeting.

The Fed's official statement still emphasizes data dependence. Its projections represent policymakers' individual assessments rather than a binding commitment to a specific future path.

The current framework is therefore better understood as:

Restrictive policy → monitor inflation → reassess growth and employment → adjust the path if necessary.

That distinction is important for markets because the impact of a second hike would be very different from a single already-anticipated move.

What Could It Mean for Different Assets?

US Treasury Bonds

Short-duration yields are likely to react most directly to changing expectations for the next Fed move.

If October hike expectations increase, the two-year Treasury yield could face renewed upward pressure.

Longer-duration yields will also depend on inflation expectations, Treasury supply and long-term growth expectations.

US Dollar

A more hawkish Fed generally provides support for the dollar because higher US rates can improve the relative return on dollar assets.

However, the upside may be limited if US growth expectations weaken or other major central banks also maintain restrictive policies.

Gold

Gold faces two competing forces.

Higher real yields can create short-term pressure because they increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

At the same time, geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns and longer-term demand for defensive assets can provide support.

This means gold should be viewed through both the real-rate channel and the geopolitical channel rather than through Fed policy alone.

US Stocks

The September hike itself was largely a known event.

The bigger risk for equities is a repricing toward a sequence of additional hikes.

Higher discount rates tend to matter particularly for growth and high-duration assets, while financial and value-oriented sectors can respond differently depending on the growth environment.

Bitcoin and Crypto

For Bitcoin, the key transmission mechanism is liquidity.

A more hawkish Fed can push Treasury yields and the dollar higher while reducing expectations for easier financial conditions. That can create short-term pressure on risk assets, including crypto.

But Bitcoin's reaction will also depend on ETF flows, institutional demand, dollar liquidity, leverage and broader risk appetite.

Therefore, the Fed should be treated as one major macro driver rather than the only variable determining BTC's direction.

The Bigger Picture

The September decision has shifted the market conversation from rate cuts toward the possibility of additional tightening.

But an October hike is still a data-dependent scenario rather than something that should be treated as predetermined.

The most important signals over the coming weeks will be inflation data, oil prices, employment conditions, Treasury yields and changes in rate expectations.

For Bitcoin traders, the key question is not simply whether the Fed hikes again.

It is whether the market begins pricing a sustained higher-for-longer environment.

That is the scenario most likely to influence liquidity, yields, the dollar and ultimately the broader risk-asset environment.