$NVDA $NVDA

As NVIDIA approaches the $220 region again, the real question in the market is no longer “Is the AI story still continuing?”

In my view, the question is very different:

Will the growth rate of AI spending continue to meet NVIDIA’s expectations?

On September 17, $NVDA closed at $219.34, rising approximately 2.54%. Semiconductor stocks also broadly recovered that day.

But there is more than just a technical rebound behind this move.

Jensen Huang’s remarks that NVIDIA chip sales could double in 2027 have once again brought the strength of AI demand into focus.

There is another, even more interesting data point.

Nebius, one of the cloud providers using NVIDIA’s GPUs, announced that it would raise the rental prices of some NVIDIA GPUs by approximately 20% starting October 1 due to rising computing demand.

This is important to me.

Because instead of tracking the AI story solely through NVIDIA’s own financial statements, we can also look at the behavior of its customers.

If customers are willing to pay more for NVIDIA infrastructure, this creates an important signal that demand for AI computing capacity remains strong.

But there is another reality facing the market:

Interest rates.

The Fed’s raising of the policy rate to the 3.75–4.00% range at its September meeting is a factor that could increase pressure on growth stocks.

In other words, $NVDA faces two different forces at the same time:

Strong AI demand ↗️

Tighter financial conditions ↘️

That is why I am following the price structure particularly closely.

The $220 region is now an important psychological level.

If it holds above this level and momentum continues, the $230–236 region could come back into focus.

The area around $236 in particular will be a serious test, as it is a significant recent high.

On the other hand, the $210–213 range is the first important support area for me.

If the price establishes itself below this area, the market may once again question whether the recent recovery was merely a short-term reaction.

But what I care about more here is not the price.

It is how AI infrastructure is generating revenue in the real economy.

GPU rental prices are rising.

New data centers are being built.

NVIDIA is expanding its next-generation Vera Rubin systems.

And rather than merely selling GPUs, the company is trying to strengthen its position across the entire AI infrastructure stack.

Therefore, $NVDA the story is still alive.

But the company’s growth alone is no longer enough.

Growth must continue to exceed expectations.

This is the most important question for the period ahead for me:

Is NVIDIA truly approaching the peak of the AI cycle, or is the market at the beginning of an even larger wave of computing demand?

The move above $220 will not answer this question on its own.

But if price, volume, and real demand in AI infrastructure continue moving in the same direction, the picture becomes much more meaningful. 👀