#BrentCrudeDrops3%
I view this as an unwinding of the risk premium rather than a confirmation that the upward trend in oil prices has ended.

A note on the timeline: On September 16, the Brent crude settlement price stood at $105.83, down 2.69%; on September 17, Reuters reported a further decline, with Brent prices slipping to approximately $104.82.

What lies behind this pullback?

1. Supply concerns regarding Saudi Arabia are easing; this is a bearish factor in the short term.
Saudi Arabia is rerouting additional crude oil shipments via Oman while working to repair the East-West pipeline. Reports indicate that approximately half of the pipeline's capacity could be restored within a few days, with full repairs targeted for completion within a few weeks. This development is eliminating part of the premium associated with the immediate supply shortage.

2. A strengthening US dollar following the Fed's move; another negative factor.
The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%–4.00% range, and policymakers signaled the possibility of further rate hikes. The resulting appreciation of the dollar exerts additional pressure on commodities priced in dollars, such as crude oil.

3. However, physical and geopolitical risks have not vanished.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains unusually low, Saudi infrastructure has been attacked, and the supply situation across the Middle East remains uncertain. Consequently, the market has not yet returned to a normal supply environment. My technical analysis framework

With the Brent crude price hovering around the $105 level, rather than assuming the correction has ended, I monitor the following zones:

Brent Zone Levels to Watch
$108–110 Key resistance / breakout zone
$105–106 Current pivot (reversal) zone
$102–103 First major support
$100–101 Psychological and potentially strong support
$95–98 Deeper correction zone if supply concerns subside rapidly
Above $110 Signals renewed upward pressure if sustained

The critical dividing line here is the $100 level. Despite the pullback, recent data shows Brent prices remaining above $100; meanwhile, some analysts argue that prices could stay elevated as physical supply risks have not disappeared.

Continuation of the uptrend:
If the Brent price holds in the $100–103 range and subsequently climbs back to the $106–108 levels, the market may interpret this decline as a standard correction following the geopolitical spike. A sustained move above the $110 level would significantly alter the short-term market structure.

Bearish correction:
If Brent crude decisively breaks below the $100 level—particularly in an environment where Saudi pipeline flows normalize and the dollar remains strong—the geopolitical risk premium could retreat further toward the mid-to-upper $90 range.

In summary: The current decline appears to reflect the "pricing out of the supply-disruption premium" rather than a definitive change in trend direction. The key question here is whether the market can maintain the $100–$103 range amidst developments regarding the supply situation in Saudi Arabia and Oman. This is a framework for market analysis; it is not a price forecast or investment advice.

At the close on September 17, Brent crude stood at $104.82 and WTI at $101.91; although Brent remains above $100, the supply-driven price premium is easing due to Saudi Arabia's alternative shipments and expectations that the pipeline will be brought back online.

BRENT CRUDE — Trading Card

Current reference: ~$104.82
Market structure: Pullback / high volatility zone

Zone Level Strategy
🔴 Resistance 3 $110.00–$112.00 Breakout zone
🔴 Resistance 2 $107.50–$109.00 Watch for selling pressure
🔴 Resistance 1 $105.80–$106.50 First critical resistance
🟡 Pivot $103.50–$105.00 Decision zone
🟢 Support 1 $101.50–$103.00 First buying/reaction zone
🟢 Support 2 $99.50–$101.00 Main support
🟢 Support 3 $95.00–$98.00 Deep correction zone

Long position scenario

Entry: $101.50–$103.00
TP1 (Take Profit): $105.50
TP2: $108.00
TP3: $110.00–$112.00S
Stop Loss: Below $99.20

A more aggressive alternative: If support holds around $103 and the price closes above $106.50, one can monitor whether momentum shifts back to the upside.

Short position scenario

Entry: Encountering resistance (rejection) in the $107.50–$109.00 zone
TP1: $105.00
TP2: $102.50
TP3: $100.00
Stop Loss: Below $110.50

Critical level: $100

Brent holding above $100 serves as a key technical indicator that the geopolitical supply premium has not yet fully dissipated. According to Reuters, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and risks to regional energy infrastructure persist.

On the other hand, additional oil shipments by Saudi Arabia via Oman and efforts to reactivate the East-West Pipeline capacity are easing supply concerns.

Trading strategy:
Hold $100–$103 → Reclaim $106.5 level → Test $108–$112

Drop below $100 level → $98 → $95

Note: These are technical scenario levels; for leveraged trades, actual entry and stop-loss (SL) levels should be calculated individually based on volatility and position size. The Fed's recent interest rate hike is also exerting additional pressure on oil prices through dollar and demand channels.
$XBRUSD