#SOL is trying to reclaim $100, but the move still needs confirmation.

SOL is trading around $99.3, up roughly 2.8–3% in 24h, while the 7-day picture is still close to flat, around +0.7%. Today’s range is approximately $96.1–$99.5, showing a sharp recovery from the intraday low, but price is now pressing directly into the psychological $100 area. Spot volume is around $3.4B, while futures volume is much larger at about $7.0B, so leverage is clearly playing a meaningful role in the move.

For me, $100 is the immediate decision zone. A clean break and hold above it would put $102.5–$103.5 back in focus, followed by the recent $106–107 area. On the downside, $96 is the first important defense because it is today’s low and a loss of that level would weaken the recovery. Below it, $90 becomes the larger psychological support zone.

Derivatives are worth watching closely. SOL futures open interest is around $5.83B, with about $7.03B in 24h futures volume. Funding is positive across major venues, meaning longs are paying shorts, but the current rates are not extreme. That tells me leverage is present, but there is not yet enough evidence to call this a purely leverage-driven pump.

The bigger catalyst today is macro. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, while BTC has recovered back above $76K after the initial volatility. The failed U.S. Senate CLARITY Act vote is still part of the risk backdrop, so SOL needs BTC and broader altcoin liquidity to remain supportive.

Bullish scenario: SOL holds above $100 on a convincing move, opening $102.5 → $103.5 → $106–107. A rejection back below $100 would weaken this setup.

Bearish scenario: SOL loses $96 with follow-through. That would expose $90 first, with deeper downside possible if BTC also loses its current support. Reclaiming $100 would invalidate the immediate bearish structure.

My read: SOL is recovering, but I would call this recovery/consolidation rather than a confirmed reversal. The next clean signal is simple: $100 acceptance or $96 failure. Everything between those levels is noise until price chooses a direction.