The Fed’s first rate hike in three years—the thing that truly deserves caution is not these 25 basis points, but that the familiar market logic of rate cuts may no longer work.

This time, the rate was raised to 3.75%–4.00%, with all 12 votes in favor. The dot plot was even more hawkish: 16 of the 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year. This shows that it is not simply “making a correction,” but telling the market that as long as inflation cannot be brought down, high interest rates will continue.
The market’s reaction was also direct. The Dow closed down about 631 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5%, and the dollar strengthened. What is truly suppressing risk assets now is no longer just the policy rate, but the excessively high risk-free yield—when simply buying Treasuries can deliver returns close to 5%, high-valuation stocks and some altcoins must offer higher growth expectations to attract capital.
Interestingly, however, BTC is still around $76,000 and has not followed U.S. stocks in a sharp plunge. My understanding is that the 25-basis-point hike had long been priced in by the market; what capital is really waiting for is when the next rate hike will be delivered.
So in the short term, do not focus only on the idea that “once the rate hike is delivered, the bad news is fully priced in.” Next, watch whether the dollar, Treasury yields, and BTC can continue this divergence. Once the 10-year Treasury yield continues to surge and the dollar strengthens in tandem, crypto’s current resilience may simply mean that the pressure has not yet fully passed through.
#BTC # contract.