The Fed’s first rate hike in three years: what is truly worth watching is not these 25 basis points, but that the market’s familiar rate-cut logic may have already broken down.

This rate hike brings the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, passing unanimously with all 12 votes. The dot plot was even more hawkish: 16 of the 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year. This shows that it is not simply a matter of “making a minor correction,” but rather a message to the market that as long as inflation cannot be brought down, high interest rates will persist.

The market’s reaction was also direct. The Dow closed down about 631 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5%, and the dollar strengthened. What is truly weighing on risk assets now is no longer just the policy rate, but the excessively high risk-free yield—when simply buying Treasuries can generate returns close to 5%, high-valuation stocks and some altcoins must offer higher growth expectations to attract capital.

What is interesting, however, is that BTC remains around $76k and has not experienced a sharp drop alongside U.S. stocks. My understanding is that the 25-basis-point hike had long been priced in; what capital is really waiting for is when the next rate hike will materialize.

So in the short term, don’t focus only on the idea that “the rate hike has been delivered, so the bad news is fully priced in.” What matters next is whether the dollar, Treasury yields, and BTC can continue this divergence. If the 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise and the dollar strengthens in tandem, the crypto market’s current resilience may simply mean that the pressure has not fully transmitted yet.#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 @Gate 广场