#16FedOfficialsExpectAnotherHikeThisYear

About 10 minutes before the FOMC news, I was already sitting in front of the charts waiting for the volatility. I had a long active on one side and was also watching the short side closely, thinking the announcement could finally give the market a clean direction. Then the Fed decision came, the volatility started, and I kept waiting for the Chairman’s speech to see which side would actually take control.

But honestly, the market played a different game.

Neither the upside nor the downside gave a clean follow-through. BTC dropped first, recovered, then started moving back and forth instead of giving the directional move I was waiting for. That was the moment I realized this was not a market to force a trade in just because FOMC was happening.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%, in a unanimous 12–0 decision. This was the first rate hike since July 2023. The hike itself was already something the market was prepared for, but the bigger message came from the new projections.

The number that caught my attention was 16.

Out of 18 policymakers, 16 expect at least one more rate hike in 2026, while only two see rates staying at the current level. The year-end median moved to around 4.1%. So the market did not just receive a rate hike — it received a message that the Fed is still keeping another hike on the table.

That is why I don't think the first BTC candle tells the whole story.

Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $75,355 after the decision before recovering. The immediate post-FOMC range was roughly $75K–$76.5K. ETH was also extremely volatile, moving around the $2.37K–$2.43K area. This was exactly the type of environment where both long and short traders could get trapped if they entered only because they expected a big FOMC move.

I personally had an ETH long from $2,402 and eventually closed it at $2,407 during the news. It was a very small move, but I was comfortable taking it because my main objective during the announcement was not to prove the market direction. It was to protect the position while the market was still deciding what to do.

For me, that trade was actually more useful than catching a huge candle would have been.

Because when FOMC volatility starts, everyone wants to predict the first move. Some expect a dump, others expect a pump, and both sides can be right for a few minutes before the market completely reverses. This time, that uncertainty was obvious. I waited for the Chairman’s speech because the statement and projections alone were not giving me enough confirmation for a clean directional trade.

The reaction was not limited to crypto either. Gold fell below $4,280, while the Dow dropped 1.21%. That tells me the market was taking the tighter-rate message seriously. But again, I would not automatically translate one reaction into a full trend reversal. The bigger question is what happens after the initial FOMC volatility disappears.

The Fed’s economic projections explain why traders are still cautious. Inflation remains elevated, and the central bank is trying to move it back toward its 2% target. The latest projections keep the policy path relatively restrictive, while officials still see another hike as possible.

So my view after this FOMC is simple: I am not chasing the first move.

I want BTC to show whether the $75K area can hold after the initial shock. I want ETH to prove whether the $2.4K area can remain stable. And most importantly, I want the market to give confirmation instead of trading every headline candle.

My ETH trade from $2,402 to $2,407 was not about making a big profit. It was about staying disciplined when the market had no clear direction.

Sometimes the best trade during major news is not catching the biggest move.

Sometimes it is recognizing that the market is confused, taking what it gives you, and getting out before that confusion becomes your loss.

And right now, the number I am watching most closely is still 16 — because 16 of 18 Fed officials are expecting another hike this year.

That is the real message behind this FOMC.

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