CME FedWatch shows 92.7% odds of a 25bps hike today, lifting the target to 3.75%-4.00%. CryptoQuant's Axel Adler Jr. flagged the historical record: among the seven first hikes since 1988, the S&P fell six weeks later in five instances, averaging -2.83%. Seven episodes is a small dataset — two produced gains — but the mechanism is coherent: regime changes take weeks to reprice. The market has largely priced this hike; the risk is what comes after in the dot plot. Prediction markets sit 5-6 points below CME — partly because rates markets aggregate hedging demand alongside directional views, inflating implied probability. At 92.7%, a hold is the bigger shock: LMAX's Joel Kruger sees "greater potential for an outsized move in risk assets to the topside should the Fed fail to deliver." Talos recorded a 28% net buying tilt toward stablecoins ahead of the meeting versus an 8% average selling tilt around prior FOMCs.$BTC
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Bitcoin buying conviction fell to 3% from 10%, ether$ETH
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to 9% from 23%.$BZ #BTCDrops3.3%
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