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#FedAnnounceRateDecisionSoon


Ahead of Tonight’s Fed Decision: Key Points

Today, Wednesday, September 16, 2026, the FOMC will release its interest rate decision at 18:00 UTC, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at 18:30 UTC. There will be an SEP and dot plot — this is not a routine meeting.

The market is nearly in agreement: the probability of a 25 bp hike is around 90–94%. The 3.50–3.75% fed funds target could rise to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023. What has not been fully priced in: Warsh’s tone and whether the dot plot signals another hike before year-end.

Inflation remains sticky. August CPI was driven by energy; gasoline rose around 3.9% in a month. Crude oil remains above USD 100, even though Trump briefly pushed for interest rates to fall.

The four asset classes that move fastest:

1. FX — EURUSD is vulnerable to weakening if the stance is hawkish; USDJPY is testing the 155 zone; USDKRW is an Asia risk proxy.
2. Stocks — NVDA & MU (long duration + AI), TSLA (consumer financing), JPM (banks benefit from a higher curve). Nasdaq is the most sensitive.
3. CFDs — XAUUSD in the USD 4,280–4,330 zone; Brent ~USD 108, WTI >USD 100; NAS100, US500, HK50.
4. Crypto — BTC ~USD 75,800, ETH ~USD 2,400. A tighter dollar = pressure; if the dot plot indicates two hikes, pressure will increase.

Conclusion: The 25 bp hike is almost fully priced in. The direction over the next 24 hours will be determined by: whether this is “one and done” or the start of a new cycle, inflation revisions in the SEP, and Warsh’s tone on oil, wages, and the Fed’s independence.

One Gate account is enough for FX, US stocks, gold/oil/index CFDs, and crypto.

Relevant campaigns:
CL/BZ/NG: https://www.gate.com/campaigns/event/6298
Gold airdrop: https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6285
Oil CFDs: https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6279
Gold S3: https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6267
Stock Starter: https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6280

Monitor the statement at 18:00 UTC. Read the dot plot, then listen to Warsh.
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EURUSDEURUSD-0.04%
USDJPYUSDJPY+0.06%
NVDANVDA+0.60%
MUMU+0.35%
TSLATSLA-0.64%

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WalletOrganizer
16 minutes ago
If oil tops $100 and they still hike rates, Trump will be cursing up a storm.😂
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SpreadHunter
18 minutes ago
If it’s a hawkish surprise, EURUSD will crash. I’ve already reduced my position.
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CryptoDadJokes
28 minutes ago
Tonight’s FOMC decision will determine market direction; the dot plot matters more than the 25 bp itself. Watch how Warsh sets the tone.
0View Original
BridgeRaven
34 minutes ago
First Review
BTC at 75,800 is a tricky level; if expectations of two rate hikes materialize, it could fall below 70k.
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