FOMC DAY 1 — THE MARKET IS ALREADY REPRICING RISK

The probability of a rate hike is still being heavily watched, yet banks benefiting from higher interest-rate spreads haven’t shown much strength.

That’s interesting.

Today is only the first day of the FOMC meeting. The actual rate decision and updated dot plot come tomorrow, so the market has not fully priced in the Fed’s updated projections yet.

So far, the market appears to be pricing in the rate decision itself — but the bigger question is what the dot plot says about the path ahead.

If the Fed comes across more hawkish than expected, I’d expect financials to react as well, while rate-sensitive assets could face additional pressure.

Crypto is already moving first.

Bitcoin has printed a sharp bearish candle, showing that risk appetite is weakening ahead of tomorrow’s decision.
$BTC
My view: the dot plot could come in more hawkish than the market currently expects.

Tomorrow’s reaction will depend not only on the rate decision, but on the Fed’s guidance for what comes next.

#FedAnnounceRateDecisionSoon #CLARITYActFailsToPass #ShareWeekly #FOMCMeetingAnalysis