The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week is above 92%, with the focus on support from voting members and the potential for dissenting votes.

There is disagreement over whether the rate hike will be a one-off move or part of consecutive tightening, while the dot plot will hint at the probability of another hike in December.

Economists warn that a rate hike could accelerate the risk of a recession, as part of the inflation is driven by temporary factors such as the tariff war.

So the question is: Does the Federal Reserve not understand the current state of the economy?