#GateSquareMidAutumnReunion
#FedAnnounceRateDecisionSoon

The FOMC rate decision is due at 2:00 PM ET, followed by the Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Markets are pricing an 87%-95% probability of a 25 basis point hike, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00% — the first increase since July 2023. With the hike almost fully priced in, the real variable is the dot plot. A median rate projection of 4.375% or higher would signal additional hikes. A median at 4.125% or below would read as a one-and-done tightening.

Clarity Act Fails in Senate

Yesterday, the Senate voted 49-50 against advancing the Clarity Act, falling short of the 60 votes needed to proceed. The bill would have established a comprehensive federal framework for digital assets. Key negotiators cited ethics concerns related to President Trump's crypto holdings as a primary reason for opposition.

Reactions from the industry were direct. Michael Saylor stated, "The only clarity that is needed is Bitcoin." Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said, "This one stings. A post mortem needs to be done on why this failed." White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt called the vote a "major disappointment" and warned the outcome increases the risk that global financial standards will be set by Brussels or Beijing rather than Washington and New York. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed disappointment and expects the SEC and CFTC to take steps to clarify crypto regulations.

BTC Price Action

BTC fell from around $77,800 to as low as $74,902 following the vote, a drop of roughly 3.7%. Nearly $300 million in bullish bets were liquidated in the hour before the vote, accelerating the flush-out of leveraged long positions. Coinbase stock fell 10%, and Circle dropped 11%.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC is trading near $75,514. The price is below the MA5 at $75,756, MA10 at $76,484, and MA30 at $77,108. MACD is at -206.4, with DIF at -507.1 and DEA at -300.6, indicating negative momentum. OBV is at -83.1K.

Key Levels to Watch

The $76,000 level, which previously acted as support, has now flipped into resistance. The immediate support is the 24-hour low at $74,900. If that level fails, the next area to watch is the $73,000–$74,000 zone. On the upside, BTC needs to reclaim $76,000 to ease immediate selling pressure, with the next resistance around $78,000–$79,000.

What to Watch

The dot plot and Warsh's tone at the press conference will determine whether the market reads this as a single hike or the start of a broader tightening cycle. A hawkish dot plot alongside the Clarity Act failure would leave risk assets facing pressure from both regulatory uncertainty and higher-for-longer rate expectations. The immediate focus is whether BTC can hold above $74,900; a break below that level would open the door for further downside.

$BTC