CT is waiting for the Fed to dump BTC tomorrow

But what if the hike isn’t even the biggest problem?

The market already expects 25 bps. That part isn’t exactly a surprise.

The real question is whether Warsh gives the market another reason to stay nervous.

Oil is above $100. Inflation is still above target. Jobs aren’t collapsing. And the Middle East situation isn’t helping anyone’s risk appetite.

That’s a pretty uncomfortable setup for crypto.

BTC has already been struggling, and a hawkish Fed could make the next few days even harder for buyers

But here’s where I think twice

If the hike comes as expected and the Fed sounds less aggressive than markets feared, we can see a little bit relief but not much

If oil cools down, that changes the whole inflation story

So I’m watching three things tomorrow:

• Fed’s dot plot
• Warsh’s press conference
• Oil and Treasury yields

ignoring macro right now because “BTC is decentralized” is not a strategy either

Let’s see what the Fed has for us.

Overall market will see downside move