#CLARITY法案关键投票在即 #Gate广场中秋团圆局

The 60-vote threshold—the battle involving 7 Democrats

The real focus of this vote is not whether the bill itself is good, but rather one very specific number: 7.

Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, while a procedural vote requires 60 votes to end debate and proceed to consideration by the full chamber, meaning at least 7 Democratic or independent senators must support it.

Semafor reported that most Senate insiders expect Tuesday’s procedural vote to fail, with the core sticking point still being the unresolved stalemate over ethics provisions concerning Trump and his family’s crypto businesses. Democrats want to restrict the president from profiting through his family’s crypto businesses, while Republicans favor advancing the bill first and continuing negotiations afterward.

Bernstein, however, holds a different view. They believe the latest ethics proposal “may already be the best possible outcome,” and that the White House’s concessions on enforcement by state attorneys general and crypto-asset divestment could win enough Democratic support. Some Democrats may not want to appear “anti-crypto” ahead of the midterm elections.

I think Bernstein’s logic has some merit. Senator Moreno also explicitly said that voting against it on Tuesday would “plunge the entire industry into darkness—with no rules, no regulatory framework in the United States, and leave it to develop overseas.” This argument could resonate with swing Democrats.

However, 8 banking associations and 18 state attorneys general formally opposed the bill on September 15, raising concerns about the stablecoin provisions and state-level enforcement powers. FBI data shows that crypto fraud losses reached $11.4 billion in 2025, up 22% year over year, and the attorneys general believe the bill would weaken the states’ authority to combat crypto fraud.

From a trading-strategy perspective, I would control position sizes before the vote result is announced and avoid betting on a direction. Regardless of whether it passes, volatility will increase, so the key is to set stop-losses in advance.