The Fed’s “Super Central Bank Week” Is Here, and Global Assets Face a Critical Moment

In the early hours of September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision. For global markets, this meeting is clearly about more than just the United States, as the dollar, Treasury yields, and global liquidity will all be affected by policy changes.

Markets have already sharply increased their expectations for a September rate hike. After the August CPI was released, several major investment banks adjusted their forecasts, with institutions including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan now expecting the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 5%, and pressure from long-term interest rates is once again being transmitted to global asset valuations.

For stock markets, the biggest variable remains valuations. The higher interest rates are, the lower the discounted value of future cash flows, making high-valuation technology stocks particularly sensitive. If the Fed sends further hawkish signals, U.S. stocks—especially growth sectors—could come under pressure.

The same logic applies to crypto markets. In recent years, BTC has become increasingly influenced by macro liquidity. When the dollar strengthens and Treasury yields rise, risk assets typically face higher funding costs.

But another possibility also exists: if the rate hike has already been fully priced in and the Fed does not signal stronger tightening, markets could instead rebound after the “shoe drops.”

Therefore, this meeting should not simply be interpreted as “a rate hike equals bad news.” What truly needs to be assessed is how large the gap is between the actual outcome and market expectations.

Markets fear surprises most and favor certainty. The rate hike itself is becoming increasingly certain; the real uncertainty has shifted to the Fed’s attitude toward the future.#美联储即将公布利率决定 .