BTC’s biggest enemy today may not be in crypto at all.

Oil has surged to around $107, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back to 5%, and the market’s probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike this week has risen to around 92%.
Then look at BTC:
Getting beaten back and forth around 77,000.
These three things are actually connected.
Expensive oil → inflation stays stubborn → the Fed feels more comfortable hiking rates → Treasury yields rise → risk assets have a hard time.
So when someone tells me now:
“Bitcoin has fallen. Is it time to buy the dip?”
My first reaction isn’t to look at BTC.
I look at oil prices and the 10-year Treasury first.
If Treasuries remain above 5% and the Fed stays hawkish, I’d rather make a little less and not rush to play hero for “the pie.”
After all, a hero saving a beauty is called romantic.
A hero catching a falling knife is usually called the ER.