September 17 in the early hours will reveal the truth: BTC and U.S. stocks should both be approached with caution this time as the Fed raises rates

The Fed’s rate decision is about to be revealed, and the market has already priced in a “25-basis-point rate hike.” Based on current market expectations, the probability of a hike is already close to 90%, while several Wall Street institutions have also shifted from their previous “hold steady” view to expecting a rate hike.
But for traders, the most dangerous market is precisely one where “everyone already knows” the outcome.
Why? Because when an outcome has been fully priced in ahead of time, what truly determines prices is no longer the outcome itself, but whether there is any new information afterward.
If the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points as expected, while emphasizing that inflation remains its top priority and hinting that further tightening is still possible, the market may revise the rate path higher, pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar up and weighing on BTC, U.S. stocks, and other risk assets.
But if the Fed merely carries out a precautionary rate hike and then emphasizes that policy will remain highly dependent on data such as employment and inflation, the market may interpret it as “a hawkish action with dovish expectations.” In that case, the rate hike could instead mark the end of the short-term negative catalyst.
The dot plot is particularly worth watching. It will determine how the market interprets the rate path for the remainder of 2026 and beyond. Some institutions have recently even forecast another rate hike in December, indicating that disagreements over subsequent policy are widening.
So in the early hours of September 17, the real drama will not be whether the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points, but what exactly the Fed wants the market to believe after the hike.
This time, BTC, U.S. stocks, gold, and the U.S. dollar may all be waiting for an answer.#美联储即将公布利率决定