No, is the crypto market really planning to take two final exams in one night?

Bitcoin dropped back to around 77,000 today, but I think the most important thing now is no longer guessing whether the next candlestick will be red or green.

Because the next two events will determine, respectively, how the crypto market operates going forward and whether there will still be money in the market to trade.

First, the U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act today. It needs 60 votes to move forward. Note that this does not mean the bill takes effect as soon as the vote is over tonight. It first determines whether the bill can continue moving forward.

The second one is even more intense.

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow.

After CPI came out last week, rate hike expectations shot straight up. The market is now pricing in a very high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

So today, I don’t actually want to chase trades blindly.

If CLARITY moves forward smoothly, crypto sentiment could get an initial boost. But if the Fed really hikes rates tomorrow and Warsh comes out with another “inflation is still too high”...

Well, that would mean handing the crypto market an ID card with one hand and cutting off the market’s food supply with the other.

I’m watching just two levels for BTC today:

Can it hold around 76,000, and can it reclaim 79,000–80,000?

You want me to chase in between those levels?

No, no thanks.

In market conditions like tonight’s, I’d rather miss out on one trade than wake up in the middle of the night to find that:

The U.S. Congress slapped me across the face, and the Fed came over to add another one.