1. The vote threshold is extremely difficult to reach: Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, meaning that even with unanimous Republican support, at least seven Democratic senators would need to support the bill across party lines to reach the 60-vote threshold. Significant divisions remain among Democrats over core controversies such as the bill’s “ethics provisions” restricting public officials from profiting from crypto assets, making the cross-party votes difficult to secure and passage extremely challenging.
2. The time window is extremely tight: September is Congress’s final legislative window. If the procedural vote fails, the bill will most likely stall and be postponed until the new Congress in 2027.
3. Market predictions are leaning pessimistic: Prediction markets such as Polymarket show that the probability of the bill becoming law this year has fallen to the 15% to 30% range, with the market broadly expecting the vote to fail. II. Impact Analysis for the Crypto Market: Short-Term Sentiment Trading, Long-Term Outlook Dependent on Regulatory Certainty
Scenario 1: If the procedural vote passes (low probability)
Short-term impact (sentiment-driven): The market will release optimistic sentiment over “declining regulatory uncertainty.” Regulation-sensitive assets such as XRP and SOL, as well as compliant exchanges such as Coinb, may see short-term gains, while Bitcoin could test its previous high.
Long-term impact (fundamentals-driven): Passage would only represent “qualification for consideration.” Lengthy subsequent procedures, including debate, amendments, and coordination between the two chambers, would still remain, meaning genuine legislative certainty would still be far off. Therefore, any rally could be short-lived, and investors should beware of a pullback after the positive news is priced in.
Scenario 2: If the procedural vote fails (high probability)
Short-term impact (sentiment-driven): The market will face selling pressure from “disappointed expectations.” Profit-taking by funds that had gained on earlier expectations could trigger a short-term correction, putting Bitcoin and some highly valued altcoins under downward pressure.
Long-term impact (fundamentals-driven): The bill’s failure would not mean that U.S. crypto regulation has stalled. The SEC and CFTC will continue to fill regulatory gaps through administrative rules and enforcement actions. The market will return to a trend driven primarily by macro liquidity, such as Federal Reserve policy, and capital flows, while the continuation of the regulatory vacuum will delay the pace at which some institutional capital enters the market.

The crypto market is influenced by multiple factors, including macro liquidity, capital flows, and sentiment. The bill’s vote is only one of many variables, and market trends should be assessed in conjunction with the broader macro environment.

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