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What he really needs as a positive catalyst has never been rate cuts themselves, but to make the market believe that—no matter what the Federal Reserve does—he can win.
If rates are cut, he can say, “I won; the economy has come back to life”;
If rates are raised, he can attack the Fed, saying, “The Fed hurt me, but the stock market will rebound”;
If rates are left unchanged, he can boast, “My pressure worked; the central bank listened”;
If inflation is high, he can blame oil prices and tariffs;
If inflation is low, he can take credit and say his policies worked.
Put simply, Trump does not want 25 basis points; he wants every outcome to become material for his political narrative.
So the market will enter a very absurd state: It rises when rates are raised, rises when rates are cut, rises when rates are left unchanged, rises when inflation rises, and rises when geopolitical risks rise.$BTC