#美联储即将公布利率决定 Rate hike probability surges; gold trades range-bound ahead of the decision, awaiting the shoe to drop

　Yesterday, gold prices moved sideways with a slight retreat. After rebounding slightly above 4350 at the Asian open, prices began to fall, and the short position recommended in yesterday’s gold analysis followed through. Gold prices then began a slow decline within a range, directly refreshing the intraday low to around $4,253 during the US session, and the short position took profit and exited around 4280. Prices rebounded somewhat late in the session, ultimately closing at $4,298, with the daily chart closing with a bearish candle.
　Tuesday (September 15): There is only one core event this week—the Federal Reserve’s September interest-rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, followed by Waller’s press conference at 2:30. The market is currently pricing in around a 55% probability of a September rate hike and approximately a 45% probability of no change. This means the market has not formed a consensus expectation, leaving the Federal Reserve with room to make its own choice.
　Second, early Thursday morning, Fed Chair Waller will hold a press conference at 02:30, with the dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections also being released this time. The market is no longer dwelling on whether rates will be raised—the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point hike surging from around 60% a week ago to 88%–93%. After the hike, the target rate range will rise from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike in three years.
　Technically, gold currently appears weak and range-bound intraday. On the upside, watch the overnight rebound high around 4318–20 as near-term resistance. The key intraday resistance is around the 5-day moving average at 4330–35, where prices may contend; this is also the resistance at the upper boundary of the current hourly range. As long as prices do not move above the 5-day moving average today, the overall trend will remain weak. On the downside, watch the lower boundary of the hourly range around 4265–60, which is also last night’s low. If prices can remain range-bound at low levels over the next two days without expanding the trading range, the market reaction to the Fed’s rate decision early Thursday morning will be more noteworthy.
　In short, gold prices are likely to remain range-bound between 4250–4350 ahead of the decision, and traders should simply operate within this range, entering and exiting quickly. The only other thing to do is wait for Thursday’s Fed decision; do not bet on a direction ahead of it. Once the outcome is announced and the direction confirmed, there will still be time to make a major move.
　Therefore, for intraday trading:
　Gold: Trade within the 4330–4260 range, with a $10 stop-loss and a $50–70 take-profit target.
　Key economic data and events to watch today: Tuesday, September 15, 2026
　20:15 US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending August 29
　20:30 US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index$XAUUSD