#每周来晒 #美联储加息会议 Four thoughts ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting

1. Market analysis before and after the meeting: Whether or not rates are raised, the outlook afterward is bullish!
The market is currently engaged in a shrinking-volume battle over existing positions ahead of a major external-event window, with funds actively locking up positions while waiting for the Fed's rate decision and dot plot to be released. Shrinking volume = no broad trend trading, only localized structural opportunities; in a low-volume environment, sectors that break out are mostly driven not by pure sentiment themes, but by hard fundamentals such as supply constraints + product price increases (PCB in this round is a typical example); pure thematic speculation is highly constrained, making it difficult to produce a sustained major rally. Funds are rotating between technology growth and defensive themes (innovative drugs, agriculture, and military industry). Once the technology sector diverges, funds shift toward defensive sectors for risk aversion; when technology rebounds, defensive sectors quickly retreat. The US rate decision will be released at around 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 17. Institutions will not aggressively add positions before the decision. If rates are raised, the bearish news will be priced in; if rates are not raised, that will be better than expected, after all, the entire market was already expecting a rate hike last Friday! So this week is a critical juncture. Before the rate decision is released, it is best to wait patiently!
2. Why is PCB strong? The core driver is the “non-AI” price-increase logic. The market’s attention on PCB has indeed shifted to a significant extent from the “AI computing-power narrative” to the “traditional cyclical price-increase narrative”: “shortage of looms → shortage of copper-clad laminate (CCL) → broad-based PCB price increases.” The starting point of this chain is a supply shortage of upstream electronic fabric, which is used as a reinforcing material for copper-clad laminate. The third quarter is the “profit recovery window” for the PCB segment. The industry chain’s launch rhythm shows a progression of “upstream materials taking the lead in Q1, midstream CCL accelerating in Q2, and the PCB segment beginning to benefit in Q3.” In the first half of the year, the profitability of upstream materials (copper foil and fiberglass fabric) surged first, while PCB-segment profits remained relatively stable. As upstream price increases continue, PCB manufacturers have instead become the segment that benefits most later on: on the one hand, they can transfer cost pressures through product price increases; on the other hand, as upstream price increases ease, pressure on the cost side will lessen, and gross margins are expected to recover further.
Conclusion: The core is non-AI PCB, not pure AI pcb! This is the fundamental reason why these stocks have been so strong recently!3. Optical modules: Can they still be traded, and how?
They can be traded, but long-term logic and short-term trading windows must be distinguished; do not blindly take large positions or chase rallies.
The long-term fundamental logic remains intact: North American cloud providers’ capital expenditure plans, 800G deliveries, and progress in 1.6T customer validation mean that the long-term prosperity of demand for computing-power interconnection has not been disproven; after the sector’s sharp earlier pullback, valuations have absorbed some of the crowded positioning, while leading companies’ orders remain robust.
Short-term constraint: The Federal Reserve meeting is an important source of volatility. If this decision is hawkish and rate-cut expectations are lowered, US Treasury yields will rise, and high-valuation growth sectors (optical modules) will face valuation pressure; before the meeting, the sector will most likely fluctuate repeatedly, making it difficult to see rapid consecutive large bullish candles.
Risk-avoidance point: Avoid second- and third-tier small-cap stocks, pure concepts, and companies without fulfilled orders as a priority. In a low-volume, volatile environment, they have high upside elasticity but also extremely sharp pullbacks.
Two ways to participate:
Swing trading (suitable for the current pre-meeting window): Do not chase rallies; wait for pullbacks to buy on weakness. Consider whether the pullback holds the trend level; be more cautious with stocks making new lows for the period!
Medium- to long-term allocation: Extend the time horizon and wait for a turning point in earnings growth!
4. How to participate amid thematic rotation—unified strategy (three rotating sectors): Positioning: substitutes for the technology mainline and defensive rotation directions, not the mainline. The prerequisite for a rally to begin is divergence in computing-power hardware (PCB and optical modules). Once the technology sector stabilizes and funds flow back in, funds are easily withdrawn from these sectors.
Operating principle: Buy on weakness rather than chase rallies; take profits in batches during impulsive rises, and do not use the mindset of holding growth stocks for the long term when trading these types of rotating themes.
Position allocation: The total position in rotating themes should be lower than that in the mainline sectors; before the Fed’s decision is released, keep overall positions under control and do not make heavy bets on defensive themes.
Summary: Before the Federal Reserve meeting, the market’s core conflict is the tug-of-war between external uncertainty suppressing risk appetite and the internal development of structural price-increase and earnings logic. In a low-volume market environment, “control positions and do not chase rallies back and forth.”