we get 3 punches this week & they all hit the same place 😅

here's what's going on 👇

→ tuesday: CLARITY
→ wednesday: FED
→ friday: BOJ
→ why all 3 matter together
→ scenario map
→ live watch

▫️ tuesday: CLARITY gets its senate test

tuesday at 21:15 EEST, the senate votes on whether to start debating H.R. 3633, the CLARITY act.

it needs 60 votes.

republicans have 53 seats, so they need democrats too.

the important part is what CLARITY would change.

BTC, ETH & other mature network tokens would mostly fall under the CFTC.

tokens still heavily tied to a company or team would stay closer to the SEC at first.

stablecoins get separate rules.

the new version also added ethics rules, more protection for non-custodial devs & a way for treasury to restrict stablecoin rewards if banks start losing too many deposits.

prediction-market odds for the law getting signed in 2026 bounced toward ~30% after those changes.

▫️ wednesday: FED gets weird

wednesday at 21:00 EEST we get the FED decision.

the market gives roughly 87-90% odds to a +25 bp hike, taking rates to 3.75-4.00%.

that would be the first FED hike in around 3 years.

but tbh everyone already expects it.

the bigger thing is what the FED says about the next hikes.

i) more hikes coming = bad for risk

ii) one hike & then chill = probably relief

iii) no hike at all = market goes nuts because almost nobody expects that

inflation is still above 3%, which is why expectations changed so fast.

retail sales also land earlier at 15:30 EEST.

▫️ friday: BOJ enters the chat

the BOJ meets on 17-18 september, w/ the decision expected friday morning EEST.

another +25 bp hike to 1.25% is basically expected by everyone.

japan hasn't had rates this high since 1995.

again, the number itself probably isn't the interesting part.

people will listen for any hint that another hike could come in december.

japan CPI (consumer price index) also comes out that morning.

if inflation is hot & ueda (japan's FED) sounds aggressive, borrowing cheap yen becomes less attractive.

that matters because a lot of global trading has used cheap yen as funding for years.

crypto already got a taste of what happens when that trade starts unwinding in 2024.

▫️ why all 3 matter together

this is the part i find more interesting.

i) tuesday decides whether US crypto rules have a chance of moving forward.

ii) wednesday decides how expensive USD money gets.

iii) friday decides whether cheap yen money gets even less cheap.

so imagine this combo:

CLARITY fails.

FED says more hikes are coming.

BOJ hints at another hike in december.

you basically get worse crypto rules, tighter USD money & tighter yen money inside ~72 hours.

that's a pretty shitty combo if you're sitting in leveraged crypto positions. xD

& thursday also has the BOE decision in between.

nice calendar lol.

▫️ scenario map

best version: CLARITY moves forward + FED hikes but sounds calm + BOJ gives no sign of rushing another hike.

base case imo: CLARITY struggles + FED sounds slightly aggressive + BOJ does the expected hike & keeps things vague.

ugly version: CLARITY dies + FED hints at another 2026 hike + ueda opens the door for december.

then there's the cursed version.

FED doesn't hike after ~90% of the market expected it.

or BOJ somehow hikes 50 bp.

either one probably takes over the whole week.

▫️ live watch

i) tuesday 21:15 EEST: does CLARITY get 60 votes & who votes against it

ii) wednesday 21:00-21:30: FED decision, future rate projections & warsh

iii) friday morning: BOJ decision, japan CPI & whether ueda hints at december

$BTC