October was not made by the market, but by the calendar. And this year, the calendar is packed.

On September 15, both the U.S. inflation data and the Fed interest rate decision will be announced on the same day. The September–October outlook is not a guessing game; it is an exam that will begin within 24 hours.

The picture on the crypto side is mixed. Bitcoin is holding around the $78,500 level — up 1.8% over the last 24 hours, while slightly down on the weekly timeframe. But during the same period, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows for four consecutive sessions, totaling approximately $460 million. While the price is holding up, institutional money is moving out. This divergence is the most critical signal for the end of September.

Ethereum is moving in the opposite direction: it recorded $216 million in ETF inflows in a single day. It looks like capital may be shifting from BTC toward ETH. Still, Bitcoin dominance stands at 59%, while the Altcoin Season Index is at 39 — money is still concentrated around one center. The Fear & Greed Index is at 69: there is optimism, but not euphoria. Total market capitalization stands at $2.75 trillion.

My macro view is this: the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, unemployment remained flat at 4.3%, and nonfarm payrolls are slowing at 115,000. This combination keeps expectations of a rate cut alive. That is why I expect a volatile but upward-leaning September–October rather than a sharp collapse. There is only one condition: ETF inflows need to return. The September 24 GDP data and September 25 PCE data will either confirm or invalidate this picture.

My approach is clear: maintain the core position, reduce leverage on data-heavy days, and monitor the ETH/BTC ratio. October has historically been a strong month; but history is not a guarantee — flows are.

What will be your compass this autumn: ETF flows or the Fed?

This is not investment advice.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, trading, or other professional advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your personal risk tolerance before making any investment decision.
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