Jiang Zhuoer: The so-called “80% concession” in the CLARITY Act is an exaggeration; there is little hope of it passing the vote on September 16.

Mars Finance reported that on September 14, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, said in a post that although the Republican Party’s newly released text of the CLARITY Act claims to have “conceded on 80% of the disputed provisions” demanded by the Democrats and pushed the probability of the bill passing on Polymarket from 14% to 28%, he believes the actual scope of the concessions may be only around 60%, and that compromises on some key provisions have not substantively resolved the disagreements.

Jiang Zhuoer cited the ethics provisions as an example, saying that the Democrats had previously demanded that the restrictions cover federal officials, their spouses, children, and affiliated entities, while the new text expands the scope only to “officials + spouses” and does not include children or affiliated entities. He therefore believes the significance of this concession is limited.

Regarding the enforcement provisions, Jiang Zhuoer pointed out that the Republicans had previously agreed only to have the Department of Justice handle prosecutions, while the Democrats demanded that state attorneys general be granted enforcement authority. Although the new text allows state attorneys general to bring lawsuits, the scope is limited to violations involving tokens listed on exchanges, and they cannot bring actions over inadequate enforcement of the ethics provisions or against the president personally. He believes that a plan in which “key provisions are conceded only halfway” is unlikely to truly satisfy the Democrats’ core demands.

Jiang Zhuoer believes that the Democrats have no reason to give the Trump administration this “major gift” before the midterm elections and are therefore unlikely to accept the current version. He expects that there is little chance of the procedural vote scheduled for 2:15 a.m. Beijing time on September 16 passing, and warned that if the CLARITY Act vote fails, it could become a trigger for a pullback in the current BTC rally.