With a 90% probability priced in, the market's biggest fear isn't a rate hike

If the market has already priced in an approximately 90% probability of a rate hike, the 25 basis points themselves will be hard-pressed to create a sustained rally. What truly warrants caution is the Fed suddenly turning more hawkish than the market expects.
Inflation is still well above the 2% target, core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, and rising oil prices have also increased uncertainty around future inflation. A Reuters survey shows that more and more economists believe another rate hike remains possible after the September hike.
So my view of the dot plot is: the base-case scenario is hawkish, but not necessarily extreme. If the rate projections for this year remain relatively stable, the market may interpret it as “one hike, then continued observation”; if the dot plot further raises the rate path, BTC and U.S. stocks may fall first. #每周来晒 and #美联储加息会议

Conversely, as long as the press conference does not clearly reinforce expectations of consecutive rate hikes, risk assets may have an opportunity to see the negative catalyst fully priced in. I will reduce leverage before the meeting, then decide whether to add to positions again based on real rates and the dollar's performance afterward.