BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold—which is more likely to move first?

After the Fed raises interest rates, the four asset classes may react differently. BTC and U.S. stocks are the most sensitive to liquidity. If the dot plot is hawkish, the U.S. dollar strengthens, and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, both could face the greatest short-term pressure.
Gold is more complicated. On the one hand, rising real interest rates will weigh on gold; on the other hand, if the market is concerned about geopolitical risks, inflation, and economic growth, safe-haven funds could support gold. Oil follows an even more independent logic. Oil prices have now become one of the key variables affecting inflation. Brent crude recently broke above $100, adding to market concerns about persistent inflation.
Therefore, I would not simply conclude that “rate hikes mean being bearish on everything.” #每周来晒 and #美联储加息会议
If the 25-basis-point hike is implemented and the dot plot is not significantly more hawkish, BTC and U.S. stocks could rebound after “buying the rumor and selling the fact.” If the dot plot continues to move higher, risk assets will truly need to go on the defensive.
In terms of strategy, I will reduce positions before the meeting and observe the interaction among the U.S. dollar, 10-year Treasury yields, and BTC afterward. Acting after confirming the direction is more important than guessing the FOMC’s answer.