What truly determines the market trend is the policy path

The biggest focus of this FOMC meeting has actually shifted from “whether to hike rates” to “what happens after the hike.” The market has already heavily priced in a 25-basis-point hike, with the latest Reuters survey showing that 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise rates.
Therefore, if the hike happens as expected, the market may not see a sharp one-way move. The real variable is the dot plot: if the rate path for this year remains relatively stable, or even signals a pause for observation, the dollar and Treasury yields could fall, leaving room for a rebound in BTC and U.S. stocks.
But if the Fed clearly hints at one or more additional hikes this year, the market will have to reprice for “higher rates for longer,” and technology stocks and crypto assets could come under pressure first.
For gold, the focus remains on the interplay between real interest rates and safe-haven demand, while crude oil will continue to be driven by geopolitical risks and supply-side factors.
So my strategy is simple: make fewer guesses and wait more before the meeting; watch yields and the dollar after the decision; if the market shows “the hawkish outcome is delivered, yet prices do not fall,” that could instead be a strong signal of strength in risk assets. #每周来晒 and #美联储加息会议