Under 90% expectations, a rate hike is not the biggest variable

At 2:00 a.m. on September 17, the Fed’s rate decision will be officially announced. With August CPI up 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike has already approached 90%, while the proportion of economists supporting a hike in the latest Reuters survey also reached 85%.
So my judgment is: a 25-basis-point hike will most likely be delivered, but what is truly worth trading is not “whether to hike,” but “what happens after the hike.” If the dot plot signals further tightening this year, the dollar and Treasury yields may continue to strengthen, putting short-term pressure on gold and BTC, while U.S. stocks could also see valuation compression. #每周来晒 and #FedRateHikeMeeting
Conversely, if the hike is delivered but the statement is dovish, the market may stage a “sell-the-news reversal.” BTC in particular fears not the rate hike itself, but an unexpectedly hawkish outlook.
Therefore, I will not blindly chase a direction before the meeting. I would rather reduce leverage, preserve cash, and wait for the press conference to confirm the policy path. After all, 90% of expectations have already been priced in; what can truly create volatility is the remaining 10% surprise.